6/29/25 Tropical Outlook: Tropical Depression Two in the Gulf and Invest 95E in the eastern Pacific

Author: || Published: 6/29/2025 at 5:00am

The Atlantic has taken us by a surprise, with our second named storm expected to be named today or tomorrow as a tropical storm. Plus, the eastern Pacific could see their sixth named storm in the next day or so as well. Let’s look at the forecast:

Atlantic Basin Setup

Current SST Anomalies for the Atlantic Basin // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

The Atlantic Basin in the open Atlantic and off the coast of Africa is quiet, but closer to home, Tropical Depression Two (TD2) has formed yesterday in the southwestern gulf. Asides from TD2, there is a low pressure way out in the middle of the north Atlantic that is not expected to develop and will move out to sea.

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Depression Two

GOES IR Satellite Showing Tropical Depression Two in the Gulf // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits
NHC Tropical Depression Two Track Cone // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov
Tropical Depression Two Model Intensity Guidance // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits
Tropical Depression Two Rainfall Forecast // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Depression Two (TD2) is expected to make landfall tonight in the gulf coast of Mexico, somewhere near Tamaulipas. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the area, as heavy rain and tropical storm forced winds are expected to make an impact. The organization of convection around TD2 is not the best – plus cooler than average sea surface temperatures over it’s development region will make it hard to intensify much further past tropical storm status. Flooding rain up to 10 inches will cause mudslides and life threatening flooding. We will give you the latest as the new advisories come in.

Eastern Pacific Setup

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov
Current SST Anomalies for Eastern Pacific Basin // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

Currently in the eastern Pacific, we have Invest 95E off the southern Pacific coast of Mexico, which has a very high chance of development. The system will move into an environment with warmer than average sea surface temperatures, so it has a good chance of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane very soon.

Eastern Pacific: Invest 95E

GOES IR Satellite Showing Invest 95E // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

Convection has become more organized over time, but it currently lacks a well-defined circulation.

Invest 95E Model Track Guidance // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits
Invest 95E Model Intensity Guidance // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

All models agree that the storm will travel to the northwest and shouldn’t make landfall with the mainland of Mexico, but they do not agree with the intensity. Some are going for only a tropical storm at it’s peak, while others are going for a category 1 Hurricane, and one going for a low end category 2. We will await the NHC’s official cone if this does become a tropical depression in the coming days.

Continue to check back for the latest updates!


Author of the article:


Matt Shiffman

Matt is a meteorologist from Manalapan, New Jersey, and a recent graduate of Rutgers University with a Bachelor’s degree in Meteorology. While at Rutgers, he appeared on-air as a Rutgers WeatherWatcher, delivering forecasts for the campus community. Matt now provides weather forecasts for film productions across the US, works with Certified Snowfall Totals in Canada, and continues to share his love of weather with those in the NickelBlock forecast region. When he’s not forecasting, you can find him at his local movie theatre, since he works there as well! He enjoys spending time with family and friends, or out on the golf course - when the weather cooperates!