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The main story in the tropics is Hurricane Erin, a storm that is remarkable in many aspects. Erin reached Category 5 status on Saturday, after extreme rapid intensification that outpaced even the most bullish model…
Read more of 08/19/25 Tropical Outlook – Erin To Cause Choppy Seas; More Storms Possible Behind It
We’re getting to that time of year. It is probable, if you haven’t already, that you will soon see several posts or videos showing images of a reputable model forecasting a major hurricane strike somewhere…
Read more of 08/05/25 Tropical Outlook – Long Range Model Madness
There are two storms currently in the Pacific basin, and two areas of interest for future development. None of these four systems are expected to impact land in the imminent future, although if Gil sticks…
Read more of 08/01/25 Tropical Outlook – Party in the Pacific
We’ve got ourselves a small party of tropical systems in the open Pacific Ocean. The head honcho of the party is Tropical Storm Iona, located well to the southeast of Hawaii, moving due west. There…
Read more of 07/29/25 Tropical Outlook – Tropical Traffic Jam in the Pacific
The Gulf of Mexico has awakened in the past few days, with Florida potentially at risk of tropical impacts, all while the Western Pacific continues to be a hurricane factory. BARRY IMPACTS NORTHEAST MEXICO In…
Read more of 07/01/25 Tropical Outlook – Gulf of Mexico Could Fire Up; Flossie Still Going Strong
The area of interest to the south of Mexico is slowly but surely organizing. It is in an area of low shear, high humidity, warm ocean waters, and converging winds. It seems on track to…
Read more of 06/27/25 Tropical Outlook – Invest 95E Likely to Form Into Storm This Weekend
An area of showers and thunderstorms are firing up off the coast of Costa Rica. With converging winds, very low wind shear, warm ocean waters, and a semi-moist layer aloft, the odds are looking pretty…
Read more of 06/22/25 Tropical Outlook – Odds of Development Increase in the Pacific
Hurricane Erick is currently undergoing rapid intensification. As recently as 5am this morning, this storm wasn’t even a hurricane yet. But it’s now Category 3, and may intensify further, before it landfalls tomorrow morning near…
Read more of Emergency Update – Hurricane Erick to Impact Oaxaca and Guerrero as Major Hurricane
Former Tropical Storm Dalila is now moving out into the Pacific, and is now just a remnant low. The storm dropped heavy rain and caused a few mudslides along the southern-most coast of Mexico. The…
Read more of 6/17/25 Tropical Outlook – Exit Dalila, Enter Erick
The East Pacific is shaping up to be a tropical storm factory early in the season. There are two distinct areas where development is possible, one is a system southwest of Mexico that could get…
Read more of 06/06/25 Tropical Forecast – Double Trouble in the Pacific
