After four-consecutive “wins” at seasonal forecasting, two years ago I gave myself a C-. And last year’s Outlook was, in a word, not great. It felt like I missed nearly every place I tried to get right. Okay, it wasn’t that bad. but out of the 10 opportunities to hit, I really only got 3 spot on. And another two half-way. So I was, basically, 40-percent.
That’s a big fat F.
This year, I’m looking forward to rebounding. Getting back to nailing them all.
This Winter Outlook is for the Gulf Coast region highlighted on the map below.
The Analogs
And the regional weighted analogs look like this:
The top analogs have been outlined in bold. These are the years that are a bit more statistically significant. Globally, a lot of the world is using 2010-2011 as an analog, but reigonally for the Gulf Coast, it didn’t line up as well with the factors that go into the regional weather.
Of all of the analogous years, here is how those Winter seasons ended:
But that is just temperatures. For precipitation, things looks like this:
The Outlook from NOAA
NOAA released the Winter Outlook earlier today, and it looks very – VERY! – similar to a climatological La Nina maps. Warmer in the south and east and wetter in teh Northwest and Great Lakes.
Per NOAA’s press release
Above-average temperatures are favored across the South and most of the eastern U.S. as La Nina climate conditions have emerged for the second winter in a row according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. In NOAA’s 2021 Winter Outlook — which extends from December 2021 through February 2022 — wetter-than-average conditions are anticipated across portions of the Northern U.S., primarily in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western Alaska.
“Using the most up-to-date observing technologies and computer models, our dedicated forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for the months ahead,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
The NickelBlock Forecasting Outlook
I’ll cut to the chase, since many of you are here for one thing: The maps.
Notice that my maps differ slightly from the NOAA maps. As I’m calling for above-average temperatures north of the immediate coast, but near-normal temperatures along the water. Also, I’m calling for wetter conditions inland but near-normal precip nearer to the coast and below-normal precip along the southern Louisiana coastline and over into the Florida panhandle.
The reasoning is in the analogs, the anticipated storm track, and the fact that it has been difficult in recent years to be drier-than-average over a longer period of time in the region.
Month-by-Month & Confidence
Coming Soon! I’m not going to break things down month-by-month and week-by-week, like I did last year in an upcoming post. That will come from a later post (likely this weekend). I’m also going to try to add in parts of the forecast where I’m confident and places I’m not as confident.
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