With all eyes on now-Hurricane Ian, I know the general local forecast carries a bit of a lighter weight on people’s minds. The good news is that it is looking a bit more certain this morning that Hurricane Ian will be heading toward Florida.
I’m not saying that everyone west of Pensacola is “in the clear” but I do think you folks can breathe quite a bit easier. Now that the Hurricane is fully wrapped up and we’ve had about 36 hours of increased weather balloons, dropsondes, and aerial surveys the forecast track of this things is probably a fair bit more certain – barring something very weird.
And I know what you may be thinking, “But what about XXX storm? That did something weird!”
Absolutely. Other storms have done weird things. But they did those weird things before we had the supercomputers, the extra data, and the incredible expertise that we do today. Weird things can still happen, but today we would see those weird things even earlier.
There is still some model support for a late curly-cue to the west, but at that point it would be weaker by that time anyway, so we still wouldn’t be talking about (given the available data) a Category 3 or stronger storm.
But for folks in Florida between Tallahassee to Fort Myers should be making preparations for a landfalling tropical system.
DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today
Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Clear, cooler. Less humid with lows in the mid 50s. North winds around 5 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
Friday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 60.
Sunday
Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
