The Doomsday People are at it again. saying that an asteroid has a “non-zero chance of striking earth” around September 10th of this year.
Repent! Repent!
Well, maybe not. There are a lot of things that have a non-zero chance. Me marrying Ariana Grande, for example. Highly unlikely, but non-zero.
The truth is, Asteroid 2006 QV89 will give the Earth an astronomical buzzcut.
How does NASA find near-earth objects?
We’ve talked about asteroid buzzcuts before.
This time, though, the buzzcut won’t be as buzzcutty. The asteroid won’t get as close as the Moon. The moon sits 0.002au away from Earth.
2006 QV89 will be about 0.05au away.
The asteroid is about 130 feet across. About twice as big as the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013.
The biggest difference?
2006 QV89 isn’t slated to actually hit Earth. It has a non-zero chance. But it came much closer in 1955, when it is estimated to have passed between the Earth and the Moon.
I’ve seen a few different numbers tossed around for the percent-chance there is an impact. It is between 0.01-percent and 0.02-percent.
In other words, you are five-times more likely to die from slipping and falling in the shower than you are of seeing this asteroid hitting earth.
Or in even more other words? You will know five people who slip, fall, and die in the shower before you’ll see this asteroid hit the earth on its current projected path.
Very low likelihood. But hey, it makes for great headlines, I suppose.
What would happen IF that happened?
Good question! It happened back in 1908 in Russia. It basically clear-cut 2,000sq miles of trees. People in a town about 30 miles away said the earth shook and they could feel heat from the impact. Another person said the “sky split in two” acording to the BBC.
But that was in a remote, un-populated area. If it were somewhere populated, it could be pretty bad.
