Hurricane Dora continues to traverse the Pacific Ocean and is expected to leave the Central Pacific Basin for the West Pacific. As Hurricane Dora makes this journey, it is expected to finally begin to weaken from a major hurricane as harsh shear and dry air work its way into the core of the storm. The cyclone will also gain the designation of Typhoon once it enters the Western Pacific Basin which for a storm with origins in the Eastern Pacific is a rare title for it to earn. Elsewhere, we are monitoring three areas of interest in the Central and Eastern Pacific Basins for development while the Atlantic remains hostile to new development for the time being.
Short Term Outlook
Hurricane Dora as mentioned should remain a major hurricane for the next few days as it moves from the Central Pacific to Western Pacific basins. Hurricane Dora has been able to persist despite suboptimal conditions due to the annular nature of the cyclone which works to sustain itself as well as negate the effects of dry air and wind shear. Other then some heightened surf, Dora won’t bring any direct impacts to nearby landmasses and should begin to recurve and dissipate once in the Western Pacific Basin.
Looking elsewhere in the Pacific we are currently monitoring three areas for development. One spot, is a region in the Western potion of the Eastern Pacific basin. A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave may slowly begin to organize as it moves westward at 10-15mph, but development within the next few days remains unlikely at this time. Another location is in Eastern Pacific Basin associated with another tropical wave looks to have more favorable conditions for tropical development as showers and thunderstorms are forms in a region which has lower wind shear and higher SSTs. This wave should move generally westward and begin to take shape over the coming days. Finally, closer to the Mexican Coastline an area of low pressure is expected to form and conditions appear favorable for this low pressure region to generate a tropical cyclone that will travel parallel to the Western Mexican coastline.
Looking into the Atlantic briefly, development does not look likely in the short term. The basin overall is hostile to any development due to dry air and high wind shear. Furthermore, this trend doesn’t appear to be changing much throughout the next seven days.
Extended Outlook
Looking into the long term the Pacific Basin looks to continue its active stretch while the Atlantic remains quiet. Both basins have warm SSTs, but the hostile wind shear in the Atlantic will keep any tropical development at bay for now. As we approach peak season, conditions could change and the Atlantic could wake up, but for now those along the Atlantic coastline can enjoy the quiet tropical season while also preparing in case of future impacts as it only takes one storm to make a season.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Hurricane Dora continues to trek across the Pacific as a Major Hurricane. We are monitoring three areas of interest in the Eastern and Central Pacific Basins for tropical development, but any new development should hold off for at least the next few days. The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and is expected to remain that way for the next week, but as always a reminder to remain vigilant and keep everything up to date to ensure that if a storm forms and moves your way you are prepared for what may come.
