Extreme cold snap ends, heavy rain expected in South: CONUS Monday-Thursday forecast – 1/21/2024

After a nasty cold spell last week, temperatures will warm up again. While not everywhere will experience pleasant temperatures, they will be much more bearable than what we had last week.

Temperature estimate 3 PM CST Monday according to HRRR model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The upper level pattern will more or less hold consistent for the first half of the week, with ridging in the east and troughing in the west. This will result in mild temperatures in the Southeast and cool to cold temperatures in the western states.

Height and wind speed estimate at 500 mb at 3 PM CST Tuesday according to NAM model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Temperature estimate 3 PM CST Thursday according to GFS model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Because the upper level pattern and associated cold front are basically stalled for the first half of the week, persistent heavy rain can be expected in some parts of the South ahead of the cold front. Some areas will likely see flooding. I wouldn’t rule out a severe threat during the week either, but there’s still uncertainty regarding which areas will receive the best instability, so the SPC isn’t issuing any specific risk areas aside from a Marginal Risk in Southeast Texas on Tuesday, with wind and hail being the main concerns at this point.

Rainfall estimate (inches) between 12 PM CST Sunday and 12 AM CST Friday according to GFS model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Severe storm risk Tuesday // Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center


Author of the article:


Patrick Kulynych

I am a recent graduate from the University of Alabama in Huntsville with a Bachelor's Degree in atmospheric science. My focus is on forecasting, especially for severe weather events. It is my dream to one day live out in the Great Plains, where I can not only forecast as a career but also go out and chase storms as a hobby!