Hot weather with chance for pop up thunderstorms throughout next 7 days: SE CONUS forecast – 7/16/22

Temperature projection Sunday at 4 pm according to NAM model // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

For the next 7 days, the forecast looks fairly similar most days. Temperatures will be warm to hot. For the weekend, the temperatures get warmer the further west you are in the Southeast. Looking at the map above, you can see that the projected afternoon temperatures for Sunday are higher in MS, AL, LA, and AR than they are in GA and the Carolinas. This is primarily due to a ridging pattern over the south central US and a troughing pattern in the eastern US. The trough just barely extends down into the Carolinas, but it is enough to cool down the temperatures into the upper 80s for much of the region.

500 mb height projection Saturday at 7 am according to GFS // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Throughout most of the forecast period, the precipitation forecast is mostly showing isolated pop up thunderstorms. These are the classic summer storms that last for a brief period and then dissipate. Below is a snippet of what the radar might look like on a typical day during the forecast period.

Radar estimate Monday at 7 pm according to GFS // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The rain chances increase Thursday night and Friday as the environment becomes more favorable for convection. Much of the Southeast will see a fair chance of rain on Friday, which is good for the areas facing drought.

Radar estimate Friday at 7 pm according to GFS // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather


Local Three Day Forecasts (Courtesy: National Weather Service)

Dallas
SaturdaySundayMonday
High: 101High: 104High: 104
Low: 81Low: 82Low: 82
Precip: NonePrecip: NonePrecip: None
Houston
SaturdaySundayMonday
High: 93High: 97High: 96
Low: 77Low: 78Low: 79
Precip: 30 percentPrecip: 20 percentPrecip: None
New Orleans
SaturdaySundayMonday
High: 90High: 89High: 90
Low: 78Low: 78Low: 78
Precip: 50 percentPrecip: 50 percentPrecip: 40 percent
Little Rock
SaturdaySundayMonday
High: 99High: 96High: 97
Low: 79Low: 76Low: 80
Precip: 20 percentPrecip: 30 percentPrecip: 20 percent
Memphis
SaturdaySundayMonday
High: 100High: 95High: 94
Low: 78Low: 76Low: 78
Precip: 20 percentPrecip: 20 percentPrecip: 40 percent
Birmingham
SaturdaySundayMonday
High: 94High: 93High: 92
Low: 73Low: 74Low: 74
Precip: 20 percentPrecip: 20 percentPrecip: 50 percent
Atlanta
SaturdaySundayMonday
High: 90High: 90High: 89
Low: 71Low: 72Low: 72
Precip: 30 percentPrecip: 30 percentPrecip: 60 percent


Author of the article:


Patrick Kulynych

I am a recent graduate from the University of Alabama in Huntsville with a Bachelor's Degree in atmospheric science. My focus is on forecasting, especially for severe weather events. It is my dream to one day live out in the Great Plains, where I can not only forecast as a career but also go out and chase storms as a hobby!