Looking over some of the latest model data for newly-minted Invest 94L shows a disorganized area of convection with no real signs of intense deepening or monumental organization in the coming days.
The National Hurricane highlighted the area starting Sunday morning, made a slight change Sunday night and then Monday morning made another slight change.
Here is the latest from the NHC:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms over the Northwest Bahamas and the adjacent waters are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development during the next couple of days while the trough moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 15 mph. Additional development is not anticipated after that time due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
The model guidance suggests that this may organize itself eventually and develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. A lot like Barry, though, it may simply ‘run out of time’ before getting to well-organized.
The model guidance, from Tropical Tidbits, shows it will eventually move away from land.
The model guidance for strength is equally as concerning (as in, not very, at this point) as most guidance keeps it as a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Given recent history of Rapid Intensification, I know a lot of people are concerned about that. So here is a peek at the data from that. It shows a very low chance that anything close to rapid intensification.
Not overly impressive numbers for RI. There is an outside chance of development during the next 24-48 hours, but it looks like the better chance is going to be over the 48-hour to 84-hour timeframe given other available data.
As an aside, the headline I used here is an example of ‘finding a trusted source’ for weather info during hurricane season. I try my best to practice responsible reporting. I very easily could’ve titled this “Invest 94L is three-times more likely to Rapidly Intensify than average”
Both headlines would be technically accurate.
The one I chose is more appropriate, though. Because RI may show a “three-times greater than climatological mean” with Invest 94L, but it is still around 14-percent. On just a cluster of thunderstorms.
The other headlines would’ve gotten me clicks, likes, shares, etc. But I’m not into that. I’m more interested in getting the proper information out there. And a lot of other people are, too. So when you find those people, remember them! Check their stuff, too!
And whne you see people throwing out wild, scary-sounding headlines… Remember them, too.
