Good morning! In order to take a quick look at what’s going on right now, I find it helpful to check out the NWS Hazards map, to look for any widespread significant weather.
This map, from yesterday afternoon, shows a pretty blank map across most of the United States, indicating that we probably don’t have much going on in terms of significant or unusual weather.
One thing that sticks out is the Flash Flood Watches in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, including much of UT, AZ, and NV. As moisture continues to flow into this area, precipitation will be plentiful, and due to the mountainous terrain, it’s likely to produce some flash flooding in valleys and dry river beds.
Since the High Pressure is centered over Colorado this morning, then the general wind field is pulling air from the Southeast across the Desert Southwest, and that air originates from the Gulf of Mexico. That is very rich and moisture-laden, which is why this area is forecast to see some flooding issues.
This surface map from the WPC is valid this morning, around 7am CDT. It’s messy, but one of the main features across the US today is a few cold fronts in the East, forced by a High Pressure system over the Great Lakes.
Since this pairs up with the 500 mb trough, we can infer that a good chunk of the Eastern US is going to be dry and cooler than average.
South of the cold fronts, the Gulf moisture is locked along the Gulf Coast, as frequent thunderstorms are forecast to continue. That Gulf moisture does extend through Texas all the way into the Northern Rockies, as heavy rain is possible for a large portion of the Western US.
The red hatched areas are places where flash flooding is possible, so once again, it really is quite a large area seeing the heavy rain risk today. It’s also a welcome rain, as much of that area is under drought conditions.
Temperature wise, it looks like I was right on the temperatures over the Eastern US, as temperatures will struggle to hit 80F across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Coming out of a heat wave, I’m sure the Northeast will be happy to see some lower temperatures.
Speaking of former heat waves, the Pacific Northwest looks a lot cooler as well, especially on the Coast. Interior, desert portions of the Northwest are still struggling with the heat, but it won’t be anything crazy like we saw last week. The significant heat has moved Eastward, and now the Northern Plains are looking at the most significant heat, with some portions of SD/NE possibly hitting 100F.
The monsoon is cooling things down in much of AZ, but some locations without any rain will be baking. Over 100F is possible around Phoenix and Yuma during the afternoon.
Over the next 5 days, the pattern is expected to remain mostly the same, with troughing and cooler weather generally expected over the Atlantic Coast, while the heat remains over the Western tier of the country.
Also, the orientation of the ridge will allow moisture to flow into the Southwest, so there may be a prolonged monsoon period with frequent flooding risks.
The long range forecast is very different than we’ve seen it lately, and we actually have cooler than average temperatures forecast across a huge chunk of the Eastern US. As we transition into a longwave troughing pattern across the East, cooler temperatures will prevail, finally taking down the hot summer pattern that’s went on for so long.
For a lot of portions of the Western US, especially the Northwest, that unfortunately isn’t the case, and summer is expected to stick around a lot longer, with warm temperatures dominating this region over the next couple of weeks.
