I’m sure that got your attention. But six topical systems in the Gulf is pretty typical. On the average, since 2000, we’ve seen between 4 and 6 tropical systems (that includes tropical depressions) in the Gulf.
And, since 2000, that includes 1-3 hurricanes.
So, looking at this season, when you break down the analogs and you see this year is looking pretty typical – despite an El Nino in place.
How does line up with other forecasts?
Colorado State
- 13 Named Storms
- 6 Hurricanes
- 2 Major Hurricanes
NOAA
- 12-17 Named Storms, which includes the unnamed, short-lived storm in January
- 5-9 Hurricanes
- 1-4 Major Hurricanes
So, it looks like the analogs are somewhere in the middle.
How did I get that?
Well, looking at the analog years, I simply took an average of the years that were most like the potential upcoming summer when looking at 250mb heights, 250mb wind, 500mb heights, and surface pressure.
| 250mb Meridional Wind | 250mb Zonal Wind | 250mb Geopotential Height | 500mb Geopotential Height | 1000mb Geopotential Height | |
| Early Year Correlation to Summer | 0.057003166 | 0.33367594 | 0.65485399 | 0.452887739 | 0.263079198 |
| Weight | 0 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1 | 0.5 |
I chose those parameters because they take into account shear, the general atmospheric pattern, and surface pressure.
Knowing that there is a connection between the Jan-April and May-October we are able to make a predication about those values based on how well they correlate to each other as well as how well this Jan-April time period looks relative to preior years Jan-April and what that meant for the upcoming Summer.
I won’t put everyone to sleep with the details, but it turns out that the most analog years are 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2013, and 2014.
The numbers for those years look like this:
| TD | TS | H | MH | In Gulf | Hurricanes in Gulf | |
| 2002 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 |
| 2007 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| 2009 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2013 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| 2014 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| AVG | 14.6 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 |
| STDEV | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| RANGE + | 17.0 | 14.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| RANGE – | 12.2 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
Reading the chart above, the “Range +” and “Range -” are the range of tropical systems given the average plus and minus the 1/2-of-of-the standard deviation.
How that stacks up when looking back to The Year 2000 when looking at just the Gulf of Mexico:
| Year | In Gulf | Hurricanes in Gulf | Year | In Gulf | Hurricanes in Gulf |
| 2000 | 5 | 1 | 2012 | 2 | 1 |
| 2001 | 3 | 0 | 2013 | 6 | 1 |
| 2002 | 7 | 1 | 2014 | 2 | 0 |
| 2003 | 6 | 2 | 2015 | 1 | 0 |
| 2004 | 5 | 2 | 2016 | 4 | 1 |
| 2005 | 11 | 7 | 2017 | 6 | 4 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 2018 | 3 | 1 |
| 2007 | 6 | 3 | 2019 | 5 | 1 |
| 2008 | 6 | 3 | 2020 | 11 | 7 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 2021 | 7 | 3 |
| 2010 | 6 | 2 | 2022 | 4 | 1 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1 |
Looking at all of that data more succinctly:
| In Gulf | Hurricanes in Gulf | |
| AVG | 5.0 | 1.9 |
| STDEV | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| RANGE + | 6.3 | 2.8 |
| RANGE – | 3.6 | 0.9 |
So, historically, there are about 4-6 tropical systems in the Gulf on any given year and 1-3 hurricanes.
That means when you see a forecast calling for up to 6 tropical systems in the Gulf, it simply means that we will be on the ‘active’ side of normal. And 1-2 hurricanes is on the ‘less active’ side of normal.
Could this forecast be wrong?
Absolutely. It is, after all, just a forecast.
The season could be far more active. Or it could be a complete dud. These seasonal outlooks are simply looking at past event and trying my best to give an as-accurate-as-possible look at the potential outcome for the season.
And keep in mind, no one can accurately, and repeatedly, predict where a tropical storm or hurricane will make landfall – no matter what they try to sell you. The best meteorologists can offer ranges of outcomes, areas or potential development, and even potential impacts a few days or maybe even a week out. But at this distance in time, the Science just can’t nail down things with that level of specificity.
That means that a very inactive season with only one hurricane might feel like a dud – except for the people who ended up in the path of the storm. That is why I always say prepare every year like something is going to hit YOU. When it doesn’t, you can rest easy and eat up all the snacks you saved and drink all the water you set aside.
Where could this forecast fail? A big place is in the water. The analogs I used above are great atmospheric analogs, but they are a very, very bad analog for the water. The analogs I used show that the SST for the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf to be quite a bit cooler than normal.
And that is not how things look this year. Looking at the Sea Surface Anomalies for right now in the Gulf and Caribbean for instance, and you see quite the opposite.
And while I’ve never been a fan of saying “Warm water can overcome XYZ problems to make hurricane season much worse,” I do think it is worth noting that the biggest failure point in this forecast is likely the water temperature and its impact on tropical development
What does this mean for you?
This means prepare like you always would for Hurricane Season. We have an entire page dedicated to hurricane preparedness. Make sure you run through that – very detailed – page and get ready for Hurricane season now, before it gets up and going, so you aren’t left having to prepare later when systems are forming or close to home.
Also, probably a good time for a shameless plug: The NickelBlock Forecasting Weather App is awesome.
Yes, I am biased. However, it is FULL of great information straight from the Hurricane Center, you can look at satellite imagery, be updated first when something in the tropics may threaten the central Gulf Coast, track anything int he tropics on the radar, and read through a ton of preparedness content.
I really did try my best to make the best, most accurate, and most detailed weather app on the planet.
It is available – for free! – from your Android and Apple app store. It does contain ads, but never any pop-ups. My promise is to never get between you and life-saving weather information. Not too many local weather apps can (or will) make that promise. So I take it very seriously.
Already have the app? Awesome! Thank you for trusting me with you and your family’s safety. If you love the app, please tell a friend. And tell a friend to tell a friend! I’d really like to help keep everyone informed and safe this Hurricane Season. And the easiest way to do that… is together!
