Tropical Forecast – 5/23/26

While the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1st, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its predictions. The outlook predicts a 55% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic, followed by a 35% of a near-normal season and 10% chance of an above-normal season. Here is a breakdown of the number of named storms predicted and their alphabetical list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO):

Courtesy of NOAA
Courtesy of NOAA

Also, for the first time, NOAA is integrating data from Black Swift Technologies S0 (sUAS) drones into its hurricane forecast model for the 2026 hurricane season. The drone data will improve hurricane intensity forecasts and can enhance forecast accuracy by up to 10%, with even greater improvements for tropical storms, up to 25%. Here is the overall impact of S0 data for the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS):

Courtesy of Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)



Author of the article:


Morgan Vogt

Morgan is a meteorology student at the University of South Alabama. She is the Meteorology Club's Secretary and was last year's Freshmen Liaison! She enjoys being involved on campus by playing volleyball at the Student Recreation Center and playing intramural sports. What interested her the most about meteorology is severe weather and the climatology side. In her free time, she likes to read and listen to music.

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