Good news and bad news, I suppose. The good news is that model data continues to show a break from tropical activity for the Mainland US coast. The bad news is that break may only last another five to eight days.
As of now, all of the activity in the short-term is clustered off of the African coast, moving out to sea (Omar), or already moving over land (Nana).
A wide view of the infrared satellite imagery shows a fair amount of convection off the African coast within the cluster of potentials.
Model data
Guidance for any one of the clusters of storms off the African coast isn’t set in stone. In fact, within the ensemble data, there is considerable spread. Here is a look at what each ensemble of the European does with each cluster in the coming days.
*screams* pic.twitter.com/8GelDZQ4ga
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) September 3, 2020
While that looks apocalyptic, it isn’t. Since that is an ensemble graphic, it is showing potential outcomes across more than 20 scenarios all at the same time.
Instead, that is a good indicator that things may start to increase in activity during the next week or two. A sentiment echoed by other meteorologists in the field given similar data.
As we head toward the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (9/10), ensemble output is rising to the occasion suggesting another active stretch as things are likely to ramp up heading into next week. pic.twitter.com/bQ5fpNa3r8
— John Kassell (@JPKassell) September 3, 2020
This is natural, though. The peak of Hurricane Season is September 10th. So we will continue to see an active run in the tropics for the next week or two. And that is completely normal.
The MJO
This increase in activity is not related to anything from the MJO, either. The MJO is currently not in a place to help boost any of the tropical Atlantic activity.
In fact, the MJO isn’t likely to be a factor in tropical Atlantic activity until later in September.
Looking at the above graphic, you can see that there will be a background-suppression of tropical activity off the coast of Africa through the peak of Hurricane Season and toward the end of the month. Once we move into October, though, the MJO swings back through that region.
The Bottom Line
Unless something forms between Day 5 and Day 10 closer to the United States, it looks like all eye will be on the tropical waves off the coast of Africa for development and movement toward theUnited States for the next two weeks.
