The Climate Prediction Center, CPC, released the Spring Outlook today.
The forecasters at the CPC also produce those 8-14 day outlooks, the monthly outlooks and other seasonal forecasts.
Today, day released their Spring Outlook that includes the drought monitor, flooding risk, temperature trend and precipitation probabilities.
CPC Outlook
A snippet from the CPC outlook:
For April through June, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored for the entire contiguous U.S. with the exception of Western Montana, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon and Washington. Hawaii, western and northern Alaska are also forecast to see above-normal temperatures. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of southern Alaska, the Alaska Panhandle and parts of Washington state, according to the NOAA forecast.
The precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation for parts of the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast and in Hawaii, while below-normal precipitation is forecast across the southern Plains and much of the West.
courtesy: cpc.noaa.gov
ENSO update
While not specifically outlined in the outlook, La Nina is forecast to continue through the Spring and into Summer. This, generally, leads to drier and warmer conditions for the southern sections of the United States and wetter conditions in the Northeast.
As we move into Summer, a lingering La Nina would also mean a high probability of an active Hurricane Season.
Seasonal Outlooks don’t dictate daily events
This is a big one! While warmer and drier, or cooler and wetter, may be in the cards for a certain area, that doesn’t mean a daily forecast won’t ever be the opposite. A warm month can have cold days. A dry week can have wet afternoons.
This is particularly important when looking at the flooding risk. While a flooding risk may be “low” that doesn’t mean that there won’t be days when it rains so much that water ponds in backyards or flows over roads. Nor does it mean rivers won’t run high at times.
