12PM VIDEO UPDATE:
ORIGINAL:
The morning data continues to trickle in, and it continues to point to storms passing through the area between 4am and 1pm. The earlier the better, as the atmosphere naturally stabilizes a bit around sunrise. That said, in this case, there won’t be complete stabilization. I don’t see much out there that would point to some way where the cold front cant move through with zero severe weather.
Brief update:
The morning data points to storms rolling through during the morning with heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 70mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and the potential to produce a tornado or two – perhaps stronger than an EF-2. There will be two rounds of storms. Isolated storms moving through first, then a line of storms moving through second. The storms that come through first are the most difficult to predict, and are generally the most potent. The line of storms is a bit easier to predict, but aren’t generally as potent.
The storms ahead the line won’t impact everyone, just certain areas where they end up going. The line of storms will impact everyone in the area.
Not everyone will see severe weather from this event. Some of us may only get a “strong storm” with heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40mph, while other may get stronger winds, others may see hail, and some may see a tornado.
But we don’t know who will get what.
Nick what are the changes with the new data?
The new data may be a bit flawed. And that stinks. I noticed some weird stuff last night and consulted a few colleagues (who are way smarter than I’ll ever be) last night. They said the overnight data came back a bit wonky. After I looked at this morning’s data, while it is a bit better, I still don’t know if it is useful. It looks like it is running a bit “hot” for our area. So I want to wait until the mid-day stuff comes in before jump on-board with anything.
I’ll post an update a bit later on that.
