9/17/19 – Tropics get active: Humberto, Imelda and TD10

And just like that, things have picked back up again in the Atlantic. There is a Category 2 Hurricane, Humberto. A newly-minted Tropical storm, Imelda and a Tropical Depression east of the Leeward Islands.

1pm GOES 16 Infrared Imagery // Courtesy: College of DuPage Meteorology




From the NHC

Hurricane Humberto

9/17/19 Five-day forecast from the NHC for Humberto // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.8N 72.9W
ABOUT 490 MI…785 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…961 MB…28.38 INCHES

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located by satellite near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 72.9 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or Wednesday morning.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).



Tropical Storm Imelda

9/17/19 Five-day forecast from the NHC for Imelda // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov

SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT…1745 UTC…INFORMATION
—————————————————
LOCATION…28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI…0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).



Tropical Depression 10

9/17/19 Five-day forecast from the NHC for TD10 // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.9N 44.9W
ABOUT 1165 MI…1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).



Beyond the NHC

The model density for where these systems may travel keeps the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico clear.

Track density from ECMWF Ensembles // Courtesy: http://www.atmos.albany.edu

However, the map above only goes out seven days. And more can happen after that point. So the above map is likely to change, so please continue to monitor the forecast.





Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.