Area in the Gulf worth watching as PTC 17 drifts north from Pacific

As I mentioned a few times last week, there was going to be an area to watch in the Gulf of Mexico as we move toward the end of this week.

And here we are.

Model guidance between the GFS and European models has been pretty consistent. Both models bring the area toward the northern Gulf Coast and develop it – very loosely – into an organized area of low pressure within 72 hours.

Originally, the model guidance was showing the remnants of PTC 17 in the Pacific drifting over Mexico and into the Bay of CAmpeche, giving a ‘boost’ to the area of storms already there.

Model guidance has backed off on this, though. Now it doesn’t show as much interaction between the PTC and this other area of possible development.

From the NHC

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Fifteen, which has degenerated into a trough of
low pressure near the northern Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

What can you do right now?

Keep tabs on the forecast, that is about it. Double check your Hurricane Preparedness kit to make sure you are full-up on supplies. But other than that, there isn’t much else to be done at the present time.