For the last several weeks, the typical pattern has been a heatwave-inducing ridge in the Southeast while the Northwest has seen a trough delivering cool, wet weather. However, this pattern is shifting as the dominant high pressure system moves westward and sits over the south-central US. This implies cool, wet weather for the eastern US while the western and central US see their own heatwaves.
As for today and tomorrow, we will start to see this new pattern take hold, with stormy weather expected from the Upper Midwest to the Southeast. A stationary front sits above the Texas ridge of high pressure which will channel moisture for consistent drought-busting showers in the Carolinas. Notice, however, that as the East sees rain, Texas and the West will be less fortunate, prompting a possible growth of the drought already taking hold of the region.
Rinse and repeat: stormy two-day pattern for the central and eastern US
The stormy pattern for today and tomorrow will look almost exactly identical with two regions at a slight risk (2-out-of-5) of severe weather. These regions include the state of Montana as well as the mid-South and mid-Atlantic. For each day, the threats in the regions will be wind with a possibility of hail in Montana.
Today’s risk of severe weather in Montana will come from a line of storms that push northward through the region during the afternoon. Similarly, the MidWest and Mid-South will see a line of cells build in the afternoon and streak westward towards the Appalachian Mountains. At the same time, pop-up storms are expected to form off of the eastern side of the mountains, forming a broken line of cells in the Carolinas. All of the storms will have the capability of producing damaging winds; additionally, the storms in Montana could produce hail.
Tomorrow’s weather pattern will be similar to today’s outlook. However, the storm modes in both Montana and the Carolinas look more isolated and less linear. The threat of hail in Montana and damaging winds across both regions stays the same between today and tomorrow.
Heat to nag the West and South-Central US for several days
While the north-central and eastern US will see near normal temperatures due to increased cloud cover, the south-central and western US will be oppressed by persistent above average temperatures. This pattern flip is courtesy of a high pressure that will sit over Texas and expand westward as it strengthens.
This weekend will mark the beginning of a heatwave in south-central US. By Sunday, heat indices will already be well into the 100s for the region. As a new week begins, this heat will expand to include the West which will also see heat indices well into the 100s in most regions. According to the Climate Prediction Center, this pattern will stick as the West continues to heat up; some parts of the south-central US will see temperatures returning to near normal.
Drought busting pattern for the Southeast while the West stays dry
As with storms and heat, rainfall can be divide up by regions. For most of the West, excluding the Rocky Mountains, rain will be scarce; this story also extends to Texas which, at least for the short term, will continue to stay dry. The southeast should see massive amounts of rain that could eliminate the drought that had begun to develop in that region.
There is a slight risk (2-out-of-4) of excessive rainfall in portions of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic over today and tomorrow. Both risks ride along a stationary front that should provide enough convergence for rounds of rain to develop ride westward towards the mountains.
These short-lived systems should deliver between 1″-to-2″ of rain the Upper Midwest. Entering the Ohio River Valley and the Appalachian Mountains, as much as 5″ of rain could fall over the next 7 days. As for the Carolinas, 4″-to-5″ of rainfall can occur along the coastline while 1″-to-3″ of accumulation should be expected between the mountains and the coast. As for the rest of the southeast, 1″-to-2″ could fall over the next 7 days.
The above average rainfall in the East should reduce the size of the drought overtaking Georgia and the Carolinas. Meanwhile the drought in the Ohio River Valley region could be reduced over the next couple of days as the stationary front prompts storms to develop in the region. Rain is expected to return the central US by July 11th which could help keep the drought in Texas from worsening. The above average rainfall in that region could reduce the growth of long-term droughts in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The Northern Plains and Rockies will see rain over the next couple of days, but those regions will quickly dry out by July 11th worsening droughts in Montana, Idaho, and the Dakotas. The rest of the West, which is already in extreme to exceptional droughts, will not see any help over the next several days thus leading to the expansion of these droughts.
