High pressure continues to control the weather as Invest 96L drifts toward Caribbean: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 9/14/22

What a difference a few years makes! This year we have one area to watch and nicer weather settled across the region. In 2020, we were battling an onslaught on tropical systems.

Much happier with the outcome of this Summer. And I hope it continues to play nice.

Weather around here will play nice for the next few days. High pressure will be in control and there should only be a handful of clouds and a wayward shower to worry about.

500mb map for Thursday // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Depending on the model data, the ridge of high pressure should hold through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

500mb map for Sunday //Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The placement of the ridging becomes the most important thing for local weather as it relates to what happens with Invest 96L. Looking at the ensemble data, both the EPS and GEFS show Invest 96L organizing, strengthening and turning north,.

EPS Wind tracks for potential tropical systems // Courtesy: Alan Brammer
Invest 96L wind tracks from the GEFS // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

But the hurricane-specific model guidance is a little less convinced that Invest 96L is going to wrap-up quickly, and push north. Instead, those models mostly hold the Invest as weakly organized through the next five days.

Forecast tracks from different hurricane model guidance // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits
Forecast intensity guidance from the hurricane models // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

So this bares watching in the comes days as Invest 96L drifts west as depending on how thigns shake out, it may have an opportunity to ease west toward the Gulf.



DAY TO DAY FORECAST

Today
Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.

Tonight
Clear. Lows in the lower 60s. .

Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.

Friday
Sunny. Highs around 90.

Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday
Sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Monday
Sunny. Highs around 90.

Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s.

Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s.



Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.