The CONUS outlook will feature a look at how the general synoptic pattern will impact the weather over the next week or so, focusing on the big features moving across the country.
Looking at the 500MB heights and winds, the flow is mostly zonal, with slight ridging in the middle of country being the only significant feature at this level. There is a chance for this pattern to change especially looking out towards day 7 and beyond so we will analyze these features for each region of the CONUS. The current zonal flow allows for much of the country to generally be experiencing “quiet” weather, with nothing major taking place.
Western part of the CONUS
Starting with the western part of the US, the zonal pattern will begin to shift to allow a significant upper-level trough the take shape over the west early next week. This will allow for cooler air to spread over the region, potentially leading to cooler than normal temperatures across the region next week.
At 850MB, we can really see that cooler pocket of air at the upper-levels beginning to move onto the coast of California, and as far inland as Arizona and Idaho. Down at the surface, both the Euro and American ensembles agree that these lower 850mb temps will mix down towards the surface to create cooler than average temperatures for this time of year.
Both models are also consistently suggesting that the cold air will make it as far inland as through portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, with much of the west coast experiencing cooler than average temperatures to start to holiday weekend.
This also leaves precipitation chances fairly limited, except where an influx of moisture will continue to feed rain into the monsoon season in portions of the southwest including Arizona and New Mexico.
With this continued supply of moisture, the WPC 7-day precipitation outlook looks to supply portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado with up to 1.5 inches of precipitation.
Central / Southern Portions of the CONUS
Looking ahead to the central and southern portions of the CONUS, the next big shift in the pattern also happens in the beginning of next week, where the anomalous trough digging in the west will cause a ridge to build and amplify over the portions of the central and southern US.
With both the Euro and American model agreeing on a ridge building back into the center of the country, this unfortunately means the heat is likely to return! 850MB temperature anomalies and 2m temperature anomalies show higher than normal values, resulting in higher than normal temperatures down at the surface.
As you can see from the two images, soaring temperatures at 850MB at 5C-to-10C above average results in 2m temperature anomalies also above average! Certainly another heat event to watch out for as we move into next week.
In fact, the CPC is forecasting a high chance at much of the central and southern portions of the country to be receiving above average temperatures over the next 6 to 10 days moving forward.
In terms of precipitation chances, much of the central and south region will be confined to the usual summertime convection storms, with portions of coastal Texas being subjected to a tropical disturbance moving through the area over the next couple of days. This could lead to heavy rainfall and flooding concerns for areas of Texas not limited too but including the cities of Houston and Corpus Christi.
Northeast portions of the CONUS
Looking towards the northeast (my home!), the rest of the week into the weekend will feature zonal flow with sunny conditions and quiet weather. This zonal and or east to west flow prevents any synoptic scale systems and clouds from affecting the region. All of this translates to very pleasant summertime conditions!
With 850MB temperatures consistently in the 11C-to-16C range, this translates into surface temperatures in the middle 80s and low 90s with the zonal flow preventing humidity from the south being transported north.
Saturday will feature a large closed low moving across Ontario and Quebec which will allow for the chance at showers and thunderstorms as the system drags a cold front along with it.
Otherwise, the region should remain in the transition zone between the ridge building in the center of the country and a trough to our east. This will keep the northeast region generally seasonable, with temperatures at average or slightly below average for this time of year. Of course as you move further south, the ridge influence would build and this will increase your chances at seeing above normal temperatures.
Long Term Look
Looking at the longer term forecast beyond one week. There is a chance with the ridge building into the center of the country as previously mentioned, that much of the CONUS experiences above average temperatures once again, with the west and east coast(s) generally being spared from the oppressive heat.
In terms of precipitation, generally there isn’t much of a sway in either direction of dry or wet, except for the eastern half of the country where they could see a slight chance at higher than average precipitation amounts. The west could also see pockets of slightly below average precipitation amounts as well.
