The National Hurricane Center released its seasonal prediction for the hurricane season Thursday morning. the NHC is calling for an average season.
Check out this update from the next potential tropical system here
Per the NHC release:
“With the 2019 hurricane season upon us, NOAA is leveraging cutting-edge tools to help secure Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes and tropical cyclones across both the Atlantic and Pacific,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Throughout hurricane season, dedicated NOAA staff will remain on alert for any danger to American lives and communities.”
“With the 2019 hurricane season upon us, NOAA is leveraging cutting-edge tools to help secure Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes and tropical cyclones across both the Atlantic and Pacific,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Throughout hurricane season, dedicated NOAA staff will remain on alert for any danger to American lives and communities.”
This outlook reflects competing climate factors. The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity.
“New satellite data and other upgrades to products and services from NOAA enable a more Weather-Ready Nation by providing the public and decision makers with the information needed to take action before, during, and after a hurricane,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.
Given that there is a weak El Nino forecast to persist, and the waters of the Caribbean are currently cooler than average this forecast isn’t surprising.
Despite the forecast, closer to the United States mainland is always somewhere to be watching. The Gulf of MExico continues to run warmer than normal for this time of the year and just off of the east coat along the Gulf Stream waters are also running at temperatures that are above average.
Fact: All four category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. were tropical storms just three days earlier. Remember – hurricanes can strengthen rapidly, even close to the coastline. It’s important to monitor the storm’s progress & check the latest forecast. #HurricanePrep pic.twitter.com/0hUO4hZlKu
— Natl Hurricane Ctr (@NWSNHC) May 22, 2019
Also keep in mind that all four Category 5 hurricanes to strike the United States have done so after Rapid Intensification. And all have made it into the Gulf of Mexico at some point in the storms life.
Of course, Colorado State University already released their early season prediction for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The cSU meteorologists also called for a near normal season in April.
