Severe threat for south Mississippi remains low Wednesday night, but not zero

As the setup continues to evolve a few things have shaken out to reduce the overall threat for severe weather tonight across south Mississippi. Though, the threat will not fall to zero. And while the potential is low, the potency of any severe storm has not changed.

That is to say while the chance of any one particular storm strengthening to become “severe” is now slightly lower. If it does strengthen to become severe, it still poses the same risks as earlier today.

Any storm that develops has the potential to produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 65mph, hail up the size of pennies, and a tornado.

Radar shows a few clusters of storms crossing the state line between Louisiana and Mississippi, as well as a cluster near the I-55 corridor.

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From the SPC

The Storm Prediction Center has released a Mesoscale Discussion about parts of south Mississippi.

…Areas affected…
Portions of southern/eastern LA and much of MS Concerning

…Severe potential…
Watch possible Valid 080152Z – 080415Z

…Probability of Watch Issuance…
40 percent

…SUMMARY…
A threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado should continue this evening into tonight. The need for a watch is uncertain, but issuance remains possible.

…DISCUSSION…
A persistent supercell that has produced at least one tornado in northeastern LA is currently moving into far west-central MS as of 0150Z. 00Z soundings from both LCH and JAN showed a capping inversion centered near 700 mb, which may help explain the general lack of more robust storms over the past several hours.

A broad swath of precipitation is ongoing this evening across the lower MS Valley region ahead of a cold front. This activity is being aided by lift associated with a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Given the strength of this low-level flow, storms embedded within the larger precipitation shield will remain capable of producing isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds. VWPs from KDGX and KLCH also show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, which is enough to support low-level updraft rotation and a brief tornado.

The main limiting factors appear to be a messy ongoing storm mode and relatively weak instability, especially with northward extent into MS. Storms ahead of the front in southern/central LA will have access to the greatest low-level moisture, and they appear to have the best potential to surface-based through the evening and into tonight. It remains unclear whether the overall severe threat will increase enough to warrant watch issuance over the next few hours.

Courtesy: spc.noaa.gov

The SPC mentioned in a tweet that the area will need to be monitored, but Watch issuance is not a guarantee.

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The Bottom Line

Not much has changed, but it does look like the potential for severe weather to develop has diminished slightly. It isn’t, necessarily, safe to let your guard down. However, the likelihood that you see a severe storm is lower tonight than model guidance was showing 12 hours ago.

The first storms will be moving into the region in the coming hour. Particularly near I-55 where storms have already developed. These storms will continue to move to the east-northeast between 35mph and 55mph. These storms may pulse to become severe, but for the most part storms will have heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind gusts up to 40mph.

Storms will move through the area during the overnight hours, but this isn’t a night to lose sleep. Have your NOAA Weather Radio turned on and nearby, have an app on your phone that pings you with alerts, and make sure your phone has the WEA alerts turned on, too. That way you, between the two, you should get alerts when you head to bed. And leave the TV on tonight, if that helps, too. That way if you wake up in the middle of the night you can check to see if there is live coverage of any storms in the area.