Latest update form the Storm Prediction Center…
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of Day 2 from portion of the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi Valley to TX Gulf Coast.
In addition to the cold front being a focus for strong to severe storms this forecast period as it advances east, a potential outflow boundary extending from west-central TN to northern MS and a couple of sub-synoptic lows located along the cold front should also be monitored for areas of increased low-level convergence. The eastward progression of the southern extent of the central states trough and a westerly upper level jet across the Gulf of Mexico will result in diffluent flow pattern across the central Gulf Coat States severe risk areas. Associated large-scale ascent will maintain convective development across a moistening/destabilizing warm sector. MLCAPE across much of the Slight and Enhanced risk areas should be up to 1500 J/kg with 2000 J/kg likely near the Gulf coast.
Front-parallel deep-layer shear vectors will favor a linear mode with storms occurring along the cold front. However, the strength of the deep-layer and low-level shear will also support sustained rotating updrafts, with supercells possible east of the cold front and embedded within a developing QLCS. Given the strength of the southerly low-level jet (50-60 kt) and low-level shear, strong/ damaging winds (some significant) and a strong tornado or two will be possible from southeast LA through eastern MS and western AL Saturday afternoon into the evening.
