Happy Saturday! As usual the CONUS outlook today will feature a breakdown of the general pattern across sections of the US, with the most notable weather features and events in each area. We will being with a look at the general upper-air pattern over the entire US, and then dive deeper into what this means moving forward.
Beginning with a look at the upper-air pattern today, the flow across much of the US is generally zonal, or moving from west to east without any major alterations in the pattern. Generally with a more zonal pattern, quieter weather is experienced as there isn’t sufficient energy to sustain unsettled weather. That being said, there are two upper-level lows making their way across Canada marked on the map. Those could allow for some unsettled weather across the Northern Plains and Northeast today. We will break these down based on each section of the US below.
Western Part of the CONUS
With both the Euro and American ensembles in agreement of a significant toughing or lowering heights being positioned over the western part of the CONUS, this translates to the surface experiencing lower than average temperatures throughout the beginning of next week.
The picture above gives what is expected down at the surface at least through Wednesday, daytime highs below average for much of the west coast and into portions of the inter-mountain west.
In terms of precipitation, not much is expected across next week for much of the west, with most significant amounts expected across northern portions of Washington and Montana, across Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.
This is only to start the week, as evidence looks to point out that by the end of the week across the west, the ridge building across the central part of the US will bring higher heights to the west coast, translating to warmer temperatures down at the surface.
Central / Southern CONUS
Similar to the west without the initial relief from the cooler weather, summertime conditions with hot weather is the story! However, storms are likely to be experienced across portions of the central CONUS due to the positioning of the ridge across the US.
Taking a simple look at the 850MB anomalies across the central and south, it will be hot with the strongest heat looking to be focused across the Midwest, however much of the country will be enveloped in the heat.
The SPC is monitoring storm activity possible today across the Dakotas and Northern Plains. With the northwest flow from the ridge to the west, a disturbance will move through the region during the day on today.
Looking at the pattern across the entire region, areas under the northwest flow from the ridge are at greater chances at receiving higher amounts of precipitation (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa). A Gulf low will bring higher precipitation to portions of western Louisiana and eastern Texas. Another low pressure system forming off the South Carolina coast will bring rain to coastal regions across the southeastern coasts. Otherwise the central and southern regions will be featured with the usual day-time showers and thunderstorms.
Northeast CONUS
Across the northeast today, there is a risk of more severe showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level low pressure moves to our north, bringing with it a passing cold front to kick-off activity. The SPC does have much of the northeast under a marginal risk with a higher slight chance across the I-95 corridor from Virginia to Massachusetts.
At 500MB, the upper-level low is visible with a band of vorticity streaming into the region allowing for storms to take form combined with the day-time heating.
Looking forward throughout the rest of the week in the northeast, temperatures remain about average for this time of year, with highs in the 70s and 80s.
The mix of red and blue across the northeast as compared to the darker reds across the central and southern US indicate that the northeast will generally experience nice, moderate summer weather, with no significant heat expected in the longer range outlook.
In terms of precipitation, today will feature thunderstorms as stated, with rain chances across the week not being too numerous. This leads to 7-day precipitation values around 1 inch for much of the region with isolated higher amounts.
Long Range Outlook
Again taking a look beyond 7-days, the story remains the same with much of the CONUS expected to receive higher than normal temperatures, especially through portions of the south and into the Midwest. The northeast has the greatest chance of experiencing cooler or average weather for this time of year, with even the west coast beginning to fall to the higher temperatures.
Precipitation outlook looks to be about average, with a slightly elevated chance at higher amounts along the eastern portions of the country, with pockets of less than average amounts in the west and south central.
