The Southeast is warm and will only get warmer: Southeast Weather Forecast – 7/17/22

Author: || Published: 7/17/2022 at 10:20pm

Over the last week, the southeast has enjoyed near-normal temperatures; however, as you probably have noticed, we began to heat up over the last couple of days. This trend will continue throughout this upcoming week as the Texas ridge of high pressure strengthens and wobbles eastward. This pattern will result in abnormally high temperatures, especially in the western sections of the Southeast.

850 mb temperature anomalies on Wednesday, July 20th show temperatures +10C above average along the Ohio River Valley // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Probability of heat indices greater than 105F on Wednesday, July 20th // Courtesy: Weather Prediction Center

850mb temperature anomalies show that the lower atmosphere is projected to be well above the average temperature for this time of year. This heat will transfer to the surface as locations from Kentucky to Louisiana warm up. This surge of warmth is expected to takeover in most of the region by the middle of the week. The Weather Prediction Center shows a possibility of heat indices reaching heat advisory criteria for many locations along the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley regions.

6-10 day temperature outlook across CONUS shows likely above average temperatures for most of the country including all of the Southeast // Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center
8-14 day temperature outlook across CONUS shows likely above average temperatures for most of the country including all of the Southeast // Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

The strong ridge of high pressure over Texas will keep temperatures in the western portions of the southeast above average for several days. The Climate Prediction Center indicates that, in the next 14 days, the high pressure system will stay over the south central US. Because the system has strengthened, its influence will stretch across the southeast as well as most of the country. As a result, communities from the Carolinas to the Mississippi River will see some variation of a warmup.

Slight risk (2-out-of-4) of excessive rainfall for Ohio River Valley region // Courtesy: Weather Prediction Center
6-10 day precipitation outlook across CONUS shows likely below average rainfall for the southeast and south central US // Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center
8-14 day precipitation outlook across CONUS shows possible below average rainfall for the south central US, near normal for most of the Southeast // Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

Today, there is a slight risk (2-out-of-4) of excessive rainfall for parts of Kentucky and the middle Mississippi River Valley. As that high pressure system strengthens, however, future rainfall estimates in the Southeast look to be below average over the next week and a half. Looking further into the future, signals indicate that the western half of the region will have slightly below average rainfall while precipitation may be slightly above average in the eastern portions of the region.

Local 3 Day Forecasts (Courtesy: NWS)

Dallas, TX
SundayMondayTuesday
High:105F107F105F
Low:84F83F82F
Precipitation:NoneNoneNone
Atlanta, GA
SundayMondayTuesday
High:91F91F89F
Low:73F73F74F
Precipitation:30%60%60%
Houston, TX
SundayMondayTuesday
High:97F98F100F
Low:78F79F79F
Precipitation:NoneNoneNone
Birmingham, AL
SundayMondayTuesday
High:93F93F93F
Low:74F74F75F
Precipitation:20%50%40%
Little Rock, AR
SundayMondayTuesday
High:97F97F100F
Low:77F78F82F
Precipitation:30%30%None
New Orleans, LA
SundayMondayTuesday
High:89F91F92F
Low:78F78F79F
Precipitation:50%40%30%
Memphis, TN
SundayMondayTuesday
High:94F93F99F
Low:76F77F81F
Precipitation:60%50%None

Author of the article:


Chandler Pruett

Chandler Pruett is a meteorology and statistics duel degree student at FSU. He has experience as a hurricane analyst and student broadcast meteorologist. He is a dedicated forecaster ready to serve you with accurate weather information!