Activity across both basins looks posed to pick up in the short term as tropical waves in both basins get more organized. Looking into the long term, the Atlantic basin appears to be returning to its quieter times, but the Pacific basin appears to becoming more active in the short term. Let’s break down these conditions in more detail below!
Current Tropical Outlook
The Atlantic basin appears active, but there is only one wave that is of real concern and that is Invest 96L. Invest 96L is currently a tropical wave that is currently an elongated area of vorticity that is firing persistent convection. This convection may help the vorticity to consolidate and organize as the wave moves northwest into the open Atlantic. This storm is not expected to cause direct land impacts in the near term.
The area of interest near Florida is a surface swirl that was caught earlier today. While not expected to develop any further the swirl has brought heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the area. The other area of interest is another tropical wave that isn’t expected to develop in the Atlantic, but as we get into below may further develop in the Pacific.
The aforementioned tropical wave is expected to cross the Central American coastline on the Atlantic side and enter the Pacific side into a region already primed for development. This region is characterized by warm SSTs (28-31 degrees Celsius), low wind shear, and now a focus for convergence to promote storm development. This wave is expected to move Westward out to sea.
Behind this tropical wave, another area of low pressure is expected to develop in this fertile region for development. This system is expected to parallel the Mexican coastline and bring high surf at least to the region, The Eastern Pacific may have taken a bit more time to wake up, but now that its awake it has no issue getting underway.
Extended Outlook
Looking at both basins in the extended range offers dualling perspectives on what July may look like. For the Atlantic, if invest 96L develops we should have a few days with an active TC fish storm that may bring higher surf conditions along the East Coast. After this tropical system, the Atlantic basin should quiet down for the time being which is typical for the month of July as a lull ahead of the normally busier months of August and September is typically.
In the Pacific basin, a much more active pattern looks to be taking shape as a convective coupled kelvin wave works to promote convection across the region that is already characterized by warm SSTs and low wind shear. This basin is normally more active to start the season so an uptick in tropical activity these next few days is expected.
Conclusion
Tropical activity looks to be picking up in the short term with development expected within the next week in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This active pattern looks to remain in place at least for the Pacific basin as the convectively couple kelvin wave looks to increased activity and lead to the development of one or more tropical cyclone.
