Good morning and happy Wednesday.
We are now about a month into the Atlantic hurricane season, so those who live near the Atlantic Ocean should start to keep an eye on the hurricane activity. Even though we are not near the peak of hurricane season yet, we have already had one named storm in the Atlantic Basin, which was Tropical Storm Arlene, which mainly stayed in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Arlene formed on June 1st and dissipated on June 4th. The storm mainly stayed in the Gulf of Mexico and caused little impact on the Gulf or the Florida Straits. Even though this storm caused little damage, even a tropical storm can have significant effects on a region, so please do not underestimate the power of tropical storms.
Current Activity in the Atlantic Ocean
As one would expect this early in the hurricane season, there is not too much activity in the Atlantic Basin right now. Current models are showing little activity over the next week; however, some models are suggesting some activity in the next two weeks. One of the reasons why we don’t see much activity this time of year is because of cooler ocean temperatures. Even though land temperatures in the tropics are hot, water temperatures take longer to heat up than land temperatures because of the high heat capacity that water possesses.
This is one of the reasons why the peak of hurricane season is during late Summer and early Fall. Another reason why activity is slow is due to the El-Nino pattern in the South Pacific; however, the Hurricane Prediction Center is still forecasting an average hurricane season, so still be hurricane ready. Also, there has been a strong ridge of high pressure in the southern Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, which is bringing in dryer air, inhibiting hurricane development.
Looking Ahead at the Short Term
Like stated above, there is not much activity in the Atlantic Basin right now and its looking like this statement will hold true for the next week. Due to the strong wind shear, cooler ocean temperatures, persistent dry air aloft, and the El Nino conditions in the Pacific, tropical development is unlikely in the next week. Even thought hurricane development is unlikely in the next week, it is always important to be hurricane ready and to have a hurricane survival kit in place, especially those who live on the Atlantic coast.
Looking at the Long Term; Possibly a Hurricane
The long term forecast paints a similar picture to the short term forecast. Little to no activity is expected, but I am keeping an eye on a low pressure system. Now before you run and grab your hurricane survival kit, this forecast is for June 23rd, witch is 10 days from now. This means that the forecast will most likely change in the next 96 hours. Also, the set up for hurricanes does not look promising, due to the cold waters, dry air aloft, and low level wind shear. For the rest of this week there is no expected development for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Just remember, hurricanes can develop quickly and can rapidly intensify, which is why it is always important to have a hurricane survival kit ready.
Conclusion
We are only a month into the hurricane season, so its no suprises that we have not had much action yet. The high wind shear, cooler water temperatures and dry air in the Atlantic are preventing tropical cyclone development. The only current hurricane activity is possible development in the Eastern Pacific and Cyclone Biporjoy, which is expected to make landfall on the border of India and Pakistan coast on June 15th, 2023
