Mother Nature has decided it is officially Spring across parts of the Gulf Coast. Proof is found when looking at the potential for severe weather during the next seven days. It looks like there will be two shots.
The first chance arrives late Thursday and into Friday morning. The second shows up next week on Tuesday.
Round One: Thurs PM/Fri AM
As a cold front swings through the area there will be enough forcing and spin to pose a risk for showers and storms to develop that have the potential to turn severe.
The eventual risk is going to be dictated by how much of a low-level push we can get off the Gulf. There will be plenty of spin in the mid-levels (and even the low-levels, too) but we will be waiting to see if we can get enough heating at the surface to destabilize the atmosphere all the way down to the ground.
A quick look at the forecast coundings from some model guidance shows neither is too sold on teh threat for surface-based storms.
That means that wind gusts and hail would be the main concerns for storms on Thursday night and into Friday morning. This shouldn’t be a surprise, either. March is “Hail Season” for this region of the Gulf Coast. It is the time of year when it is cool enough aloft to produce hailstones but not quite warm enough at the surface to get fully surface-based storms.
Round Two: Next Tuesday
That said, next week it looks like surface-based storms will be more likely than this Thursday/Friday.
This means that tornadoes may be more likely than this week, but it doesn’t mean it is a slam dunk, either. There is still a fair bit of uncertainty here with a handful of parameters – including the potential for a blob of convection in the Gulf that may cut off the flow of low-level heat and moisture.
So I will continue to monitor the potential for next week, but at this time I don’t think it is anything worth losing sleep over. Just keep tabs on the forecast in the coming days and monitor the trends.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s.
Tonight
Clearing skies with patchy fog building in after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s.
Thursday
Morning fog that should clear after 10a. Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Lows in the mid 50s. Breezy.South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40-percent.
Friday
Showers and storms early – before sunrise. Some storms may be severe. Clearing skies during the day. Breezy. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday Night
Mostly clear with lows in the 40s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with highs around 70.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Sunday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Not as cool with lows in the upper 50s.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers and storms. Some severe. Highs in the upper 70s.
