There have been a few showers and storms drifting across the area today, but nothing as robust as over the weekend. This is pretty standard for being between systems like we are today.
Storms across parts of Louisiana are drifting northward very slowly and the rest of the rain is rather spotty.
Model guidance seems to think we will see a few showers and storms develop tonight across the region. So I’ve added a handful of ‘storms possible’ ticks to the Timeline for tonight. But it does look like better chances for rain will arrive tomorrow and Wednesday – mainly in the middle of the day.
Between Tuesday and Wednesday, while Tuesday may look like more rain, Wednesday will actually off the best chance for storms.
Tuesday’s stormy details
On Tuesday, storms will be widely scattered. I tend to think just about everyone sees some sort of rain, but for some, it won’t be that much. But because storms will be dotting the landscape, it means that everyone is fair game for rain between 11a and 6p. But it won’t be raining the whole time.
And the Skew-t data (on the right) shows that the atmosphere has some dry air aloft and the freezing layer is up around 10,000ft. That means in some of the stronger storms, some pea-sized hail may fall.
That drier air also means a better chance we can mix down some of the wind aloft in downdrafts if we can establish rotating storms. On top of that, wet microbursts will be possible, too. Because of that, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather – a “1” on the 1-to-5 scale where “5” is the highest risk for the most significant severe weather.
Notice that the tornado risk is still 2% for tomorrow, so we can’t completely rule it out. But the main concern will be for brief heavy rain, lightning, wind gusts up to 60mph, and small hail.
Wednesday’s stormy details
On Wednesday, the chance for rain is a bit more compact temporally. But I think more folks get in on the heavier rain. Timing for the rain is between 10a and 4p, right now, but I actually think this may change. I think this may show up a tad earlier and kick out of the area a tad earlier, too.
The radar on the left shows a broken line of storms moving from east to west. While the skew-t data show a freezing line a bit higher with less dry air, meaning hail is less likely. And witht he wind barbs showing that the wind throughout the column is parallel to the line of storms, it means these storms may end up moving slower if a cold pool doesn’t develop on the backside of the storms.
The main concern with storms on Wednesday will be heavy rain, localized flash flooding, lightning, and wind gusts up to 50mph.
But once these storms move out, things should dry out Thursday, Friday and into the weekend.
You said that, on Wednesday, the timeline was from 10 AM until 4 PM, but you thought it might show up earlier and leave out earlier. What do ‘you’ think the timeline will be?
Sadly, it looks like I was wrong twice. The timeline has expanded a bit. I think the rain starts around sunrise and lingers through most of the day. Severe weather isn’t as likely, but heavy rain at times is likely with some localized flooding possible.