In what continues to be an active period of weather for the month of June, we will keep seeing these same trends continue over the next week. Under a classic omega blocking pattern for much of the US, this will allow for the already summer-like heat to keep building in the southern US, while at the same time maintaining rain chances across the East Coast. Including these two, severe thunderstorms will be a possibility over the next 4-5 days across portions of the Central and High Plains, bringing the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Let’s break it down below and go into more detail about what is coming down the pipe for these areas.
Heat Continues to Climb in the South
In large part from the aforementioned omega blocking pattern that is all too common during this time of the year, the heat will continue to increase across the southern US. A dome of high pressure will remain parked over the Rio Grande region and not budge over the next week. This will allow for much higher- than-average temperatures to soar across the region, giving little relief for many from this heat. Combine that with dew point temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the low/mid 70s and you got very uncomfortable to downright oppressive conditions outside during the daytime. For example, much of Texas will see daytime temperatures climb into the upper 90s to mid 100s throughout the week, with heat indices getting into the upper 100s to lower 110s. This kind of dangerous heat will extend further north across the southern Plains and east towards the Mississippi River Delta region over the next week. Extreme caution should be taken when doing any physical activity outside during the afternoon, as heat stress and illnesses do not take long to set in under these conditions.
More Severe Weather Possible in the Great and High Plains
Just outside of the influence of this high-pressure system, the Great Plains and High Plains region of the United States will carry the opportunity to see multiple days of severe thunderstorms. Rich Gulf moisture continues to stream northward all the way north of the Canadian border. Supplemented with very warm surface temperatures and broad southwesterly flow aloft, and you got the general synoptic ingredients for unsettled weather. Disturbances within this flow and ejecting upper-level lows will provide the needed mesoscale support to initiate and drive these storms. Places along and east of the I-25 corridor (especially eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and western Nebraska) will see chances for severe thunderstorms all the way into the weekend. Looking at some of the ingredients in place over this week, instability you have in spades, with MLCAPE (Mixed-layer CAPE) values reaching as high as 4000+ J/kg, which for a lack of a better term is a very to extremely unstable atmosphere. Moderate wind shear aloft will help to sustain these potential storms and help them reach severe status. For specific hazards, large hail and damaging winds generally will be the primary concerns across these severe weather days, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out either. If you or someone you know is expecting severe weather throughout the week, be sure to tune into your local news station, or visit the Storm Prediction Center at spc.noaa.gov.
There is a benefit to all of this active weather in this corner of the country. Much of this region has been severely drought-stricken over the last few years, and these storms will help to continually improve drought conditions across the region. This is reflected in the latest drought outlook, with much of the Plains either seeing drought conditions improve or removed entirely over the course of the summer.
Eastern Seaboard stays Wet and Soggy
Raincoats will still be needed over the next 7 days for many up and down the Eastern US, as repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to inundate the region. Helping to trigger these showers is a closed low situated over the Midwest that will just hover over the area and continually help foster these showers. Localized flooding may be possible with these rounds of showers, especially as the soil becomes more and more saturated with water day-by-day. Rainfall totals will vary on a local level, but generally, several locations east of the Appalachian Mountains have the possibility to see at least 3 inches of rainfall through the next week.
Travel Impacts for 6/21/2023
Be aware of severe thunderstorms if you plan on driving through the Central and High Plains over the next couple of days. Have multiple ways of receiving weather information and any warnings or advisories and plan your trip accordingly if your route is expected to run into severe thunderstorms. Out in the east, be mindful of any water on the roadways from pooling or overflowing ditches and creeks. Slow down if you encounter heavier rainfall and or reduced visibility as you are driving. For the south, make sure your car’s AC system is in good working order and be sure to keep your vehicle running if you can if you have to stop for an extended period of time. It does not take long for temperatures inside a vehicle to soar in conditions as hot as this and can make for potentially extremely hazardous situations.
Extended Outlook
Looking forward into the end of the month and the beginning of July, upper-level ridging across the southern US looks to intensify and expand its influence further into the interior of the country. This would push any organized weather potential further northward to the northern US and gradually suppress storms across the central third of the country. Under this pattern, the heat will build and expand outwards to cover more areas across the central US. Summertime looks to be getting into full swing for many.
Conclusion
The heat is on for many in the south, as rising temperatures and heat indices will continue for much of the region over the course of the next 7 days. Air temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s and heat indices well into the 100s will be commonplace in these southern states, and as such, caution should be heeded to prevent heat-related illnesses. Further north into the Plains, several consecutive days of severe thunderstorms will be possible, bring mainly large hail and damaging winds. Day-by-day information on specific hazards and locations can be found on the Storm Prediction Center’s webpage, or through local news outlets. Finally out along the eastern US, wet weather will be the flavor of the week, with round after round of showers and thunderstorms possible during this time.
