8/28/21 2PM Hurricane Ida update – perhaps a wiggle to the east

hurricane Ida is now a Category 2 Hurricane as it continues to drift northwest around 15mph – currently at 16mph. This is slightly faster (by 1-2mph) than we thought yesterday. The storm is likely just beginning to get to a point where Rapid Intensification is possible.

Here is a look at the latest forecast.

Now a look at the cone relative to the warmet Gulf waters

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Brief Discussion

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 86.6 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42003 located about 55 miles (90 km) northeast of the eye has reported peak sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

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Potential impacts

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA…1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba today as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across western Cuba through today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

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Looking ahead

Just a quick note that I would guess the 4pm forecast from the NHC will feature the first shift to the east from the forecast cone. It won’t be by much, but they’ll probably shift it slightly. So far Hurricane Ida has been gliding up the eastern edge of the forecast cone since it was south of Cuba. It is moving just slightly more northerly than northwesterly.

Using teh same map as above, here is a look at a potential change.

What does this mean?

Well as I discussed last night in detail (probably too much detail) it will not have as much of an impact to inland counties. as coastal ones. It may mean pumping the wind back up another 5-15mph again for the palces where it was removed this morning.

It may also mean a higher rainfall potential or fewer tornadoes.

I’ll be looking things over and trying to figre that out for my evening update a bit later (likely after dinner)