Looking at the latest data, the NHC still hasn’t nudged things too far back to the east yet. Even though, Hurricane Ida continues to trek more northerly that true northwesterly.
This is still slated to slow down as it makes the turn back to the northeast. As it does so, it will drop a ton of rainfall and continue to hammer the same areas with Tropical Storm force wind. Below is a look at the estimated wind gusts from the HRRR model during the day on Sunday.
Notice there are some areas that go through the entire day on Sunday with little to no impact across parts of Mississippi and Alabama. While folks in Louisiana get plenty.
Then by Monday (below), the wind and heavier rain pushes north and east.
Keep in mind, that is only one model. But it is a good visualization of the timeline and general wind speeds.
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Keep in mind, this is a preliminary forecast that is subject to change given the nature of tropical forecasting. Please check back for updates.
A couple of notes with ‘how to read’ this information…
– Timeline is always always purposefully wide to corral any wiggles in the storm’s motion.
– Rainfall estimations are always in 3″ windows.
– Sustained wind estimates are for ‘up to’ a certain speed. I am forecasting for the top-end potential to help people prepare. If you only see wind at 45mph at your house but the forecast was for ‘up to’ 55mph, the forecast was accurate. The same is true for wind gusts.
– Impacts break down the most likely impacts to cause disruptions, other impacts are possible
– Power outage risk is pretty straight-forward based on rainfall and wind speed
Louisiana
St. Helena Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Tangipahoa Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Washington Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Livingston Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
St. Tammany Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Mississippi
NEAR I-20
Copiah County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain ( up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Simpson County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain ( up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Smith County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain ( up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jasper County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain ( up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 35mph
– Wind gusts up to 50mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Clarke County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 2″ to 5″ of rain ( up to 8″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 30mph
– Wind gusts up to 45mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
Lincoln County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain ( up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Lawrence County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain ( up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jeff Davis County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain ( up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Covington County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain ( up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jones County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain ( up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Wayne County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain ( up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 35mph
– Wind gusts up to 50mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR
Pike County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Walthall County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Marion County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain ( up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Lamar County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain ( up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Forrest County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain ( up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Perry County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain ( up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Greene County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain ( up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR
Pearl River County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain ( up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Stone County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain ( up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
George County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain ( up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Alabama
Sumter County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 2″ to 5″ of rain ( up to 8″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 30mph
– Wind gusts up to 45mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Choctaw County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain ( up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 35mph
– Wind gusts up to 50mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Washington County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain ( up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Coastal Communities
Jackson County
Timeline: Sunday 7am – Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain ( up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Storm Surge: 4-7 feet
Harrison County
Timeline: Sunday 7am – Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain ( up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Storm Surge: 5-8 feet
Hancock County
Timeline: Sunday 7am – Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Storm Surge: 6-9 feet
Evacuations may be needed for a much larger area than you’d think at first glance. Notice the area with “6ft above ground level” stretches from Vermilion Bay all the way to the MS/AL border.
And up to 15 feet of surge is possible from the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
That is on top of the potential for much higher wind speeds, given you are right on the water. So, if you are ordered to evacuate, please listen. This is not going to be a fun storm to ‘ride out’ at home.
