A couple changes: I bumped up the peak wind gust across the board by 5mph. With how big this stom is now, the rainbands may not support higher sustained wind across the board (though there were places where the sustained wind got increased, too) but there was enough evidence to support bumping up th wind gust values a bit.
Rainfall was mostly unchanged, I did add an inch or two here and there, particularly along the coast and in Louisiana.
Overall this storm is now a 9.33 on the Tropical Threat Index. Putting it equal with Hurricane Katrina for potential direct impacts.
Now, before your heart sinks into your stomach. That is direct impacts at and near the landfall site. The storm isn’t quite as large as Katrina and the wind field is not as big, either. So ‘Hurricane-Force Conditions’ are not anticipated to spread out and cover as much area as they did with Katrina. And many of the worst impacts with Katrina were secondary impacts, this scale cannot (and should not) be used for measuring potential secondary impacts.
Here is the latest from the NHC:
Landfall is now pegged to be jest west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. This is probably a worst case scenario for the people of New Orleans. And it makes me sad to know that the city – once again – will never be the same.
Many people asked me recently to add a place on my site for them to ‘help’ my blog financially. Others asked for a place to say ‘thanks.’
So, I set up this PayPal link to help those who want to help me pay for server space, bandwidth, and other costs of maintaining this site. Or for those who want to say ‘thanks’ for the forecast.
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Keep in mind, this is a preliminary forecast that is subject to change given the nature of tropical forecasting. Please check back for updates.
A couple of notes with ‘how to read’ this information…
– Timeline is always always purposefully wide to corral any wiggles in the storm’s motion.
– Rainfall estimations are always in 3″ windows.
– Sustained wind estimates are for ‘up to’ a certain speed. I am forecasting for the top-end potential to help people prepare. If you only see wind at 45mph at your house but the forecast was for ‘up to’ 55mph, the forecast was accurate. The same is true for wind gusts.
– Impacts break down the most likely impacts to cause disruptions, other impacts are possible
– Power outage risk is pretty straight-forward based on rainfall and wind speed
Louisiana
St. Helena Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Tangipahoa Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Washington Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Livingston Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 8″ to 11″ of rain (up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 75mph
– Wind gusts up to 95mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
St. Tammany Parish
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain ( up to 15″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Mississippi
NEAR I-20
Copiah County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Simpson County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Smith County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jasper County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Clarke County
Timeline: Sunday 7pm – Monday 10pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 2″ to 5″ of rain (up to 8″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 30mph
– Wind gusts up to 50mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
Lincoln County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Lawrence County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jeff Davis County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Covington County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Jones County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Wayne County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 35mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR
Pike County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 70mph
– Wind gusts up to 90mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Walthall County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Marion County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Lamar County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Forrest County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 4pm
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Perry County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Greene County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
HIGHWAY 26 CORRIDOR
Pearl River County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 85mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
Stone County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 4pm – Mon 10am
Threats:
– 4″ to 7″ of rain (up to 10″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 50mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Very High
George County
Timeline: Sunday 10am – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 7pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 40mph
– Wind gusts up to 60mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Alabama
Sumter County
Timeline: Sunday 4pm – Monday 7pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 2″ to 5″ of rain (up to 8″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 30mph
– Wind gusts up to 50mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: Moderate
Choctaw County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 35mph
– Wind gusts up to 55mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Washington County
Timeline: Sunday 1pm – Monday 4pm
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 10pm – Mon 1pm
Threats:
– 3″ to 6″ of rain (up to 9″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 45mph
– Wind gusts up to 65mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Coastal Communities
Looking at the storm surge map from the NHC, you can see that it is following along with what I was suggesting last night – the totals needed to be higher.
Jackson County
Timeline: Now- Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 5″ to 8″ of rain (up to 11″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 55mph
– Wind gusts up to 70mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Storm Surge: 4-7 feet
Harrison County
Timeline: Now – Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 6″ to 9″ of rain (up to 12″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 60mph
– Wind gusts up to 75mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Storm Surge: 5-8 feet
Hancock County
Timeline: Now – Monday 10am
Timeline for most intense rainfall/wind/tornado threat: Sun 1pm – Mon 1am
Threats:
– 7″ to 10″ of rain (up to 13″ locally under heavier rainbands)
– Sustained wind up to 65mph
– Wind gusts up to 80mph
– Tropical tornadoes
Impacts: flooding, downed trees
Power Outage Risk: High
Storm Surge: 6-9 feet
Coastal folks who did not evacuate, please be prepared for higher water than originally forecast. Notice the area with at least “6ft above ground level” stretches from the mouth of the Mississippi all the way to the MS/AL border.
A wider view that is a bit more detailed looks like this:
You can look at the interactive version of the above map here.
That is on top of the potential for much higher wind speeds, given you are right on the water. So, if you are ordered to evacuate, please listen. This is not going to be a fun storm to ‘ride out’ at home.
How come there is such a discrepancy on the wind velocity from the Weather Channel and my local weather WDAM television reporter. For example the Weather Channel said wind velocity at 7:00 p.m. Sunday in Hattiesburg, Mississippi is estimated at only 32 mph and my local weather reporter is saying, “expect wind gusts up to 75 mph”?
I can’t speak for WDAM or The Weather Channel. But often discrepancies show up because each is using model data to provide a number, and if each is using a different model, you see a different number.
That is why I try my best to put together an actual forecast. It won’t be as precise, for example I can’t tell you what the wind will be at exactly 7p, but it will hopefully be more accurate overall.
You will never know how valuable this information is! It gives us an idea of what to expect and when to expect it. I know it won’t be precise, but ‘some’ idea is better than no idea like it was 52 years ago! Thank you, Nick!