7/13/25 Tropical Outlook: Monitoring the gulf for potential activity

Author: || Published: 7/13/2025 at 5:00am

While our large-scale theme for both basins is to be quiet for the next 7 days, there is the possibility of something forming in the next 7 days in the Gulf. Let’s look at what’s going on:

Atlantic Basin Setup

Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook
Current SST Anomalies in the Atlantic Basin // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits
Mid-Level Relative Humidity in the Gulf // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

The Atlantic basin is mainly quiet, but there is a newly announced area to watch with a 20 percent chance of development in the next 7 days. Models are hinting at some sort of low-pressure system forming in the Gulf by Wednesday or Thursday potentially moving into our region. The GFS has this plume of spinning moisture shown in the relative humidity above, but the Euro is a little more conservative with it. Regardless, increased rain will be in the forecast for this weekend with this piece of energy.

Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Outlook showing area to watch // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov
Global Tropics Hazards Outlook showing small chance of tropical activity in the Gulf // Courtesy: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Eastern Pacific Setup

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook // Courtesy: nhc.noaa.gov
Current SST Anomalies for the Eastern Pacific // Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits
Mid-Level Relative Humidity in the Eastern Pacific// Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

In the eastern Pacific, there are also no areas to watch for the next 7 days. While water temperatures are still very warm in the region, the areas of moisture that are modeled by the GFS do not currently develop into tropical systems. The east Pacific hurricane season came to a quick start, so we will take this lull in activity to be good!

Continue to check back for the latest updates!


Author of the article:


Matt Shiffman

Matt is a meteorologist from Manalapan, New Jersey, and a recent graduate of Rutgers University with a Bachelor’s degree in Meteorology. While at Rutgers, he appeared on-air as a Rutgers WeatherWatcher, delivering forecasts for the campus community. Matt now provides weather forecasts for film productions across the US, works with Certified Snowfall Totals in Canada, and continues to share his love of weather with those in the NickelBlock forecast region. When he’s not forecasting, you can find him at his local movie theatre, since he works there as well! He enjoys spending time with family and friends, or out on the golf course - when the weather cooperates!