Dense fog is covering much of the area this morning. This should dissipate by mid-morning, but be careful driving on your morning commute! Temperatures will be warmer than average today reaching the mid to upper 70s. As the sun goes down, we’ll see our first taste of some thunderstorm activity as the arm of the warm front moves north. Most of the leading cells won’t arrive until closer to midnight, but we’ll still have a few stray ones to contend with before the main line.
Most of the severe weather threat is around northern Louisiana and the Mississippi Delta, while the Pine Belt is just within/outside the Marginal (1/5) risk. The leading edge cells are our main concern as they have the highest potential for severe weather. Tornado risk is 5% higher than an average day for most in Louisiana, and 2% higher for the surrounding areas. There are a few cells that have the potential for severe weather, mainly heavy rain, gusty winds and a possible tornado overnight. Keep your phones and weather radios on just in case there is a warning!
Convection isn’t the most impressive with this system, however updraft helicity and precipitable water is. This is still a mixed bag of storm potential, but I do think we’ll see a few severe cells out of this system overnight. This will go on until the morning hours and we’ll have a brief reprieve. The tail of the system is expected to come through by the early afternoon. Expect some warmer temperatures Tuesday afternoon with a high in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
The double cold front will move in Wednesday cutting temperatures down to the mid 60s during the day. Winds will shift towards the north with wind gusts around 20mph. A more chilly day than what we’ve been used to and mostly sunny skies. If you want a more autumn crisp to your evening, it’s coming! Lows will reach the low 40s overnight. Thanksgiving will also be more autumn-feeling as temperatures reach around 60 during the day and fall into the upper 30s overnight. Black Friday will also be cooler with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the mid 40s.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
