Overall Setup
The cooler-than-average temperatures are here to stay, making winter feel more like winter! While it would be nice to see some accumulating snow (or not nice, don’t yell at me!), we will at least keep this cooler air around for the near future. Friday is an exception, as southerly flow will dominate. As you can see above, we’re going to see round after round of height falls this weekend and next week, which will provide the supply for the cooler air. It also keeps precipitation around, but it doesn’t look like we’ll have enough moisture or cold air for any good snow.
Tonight’s Forecast
By midnight tonight, we will see our low temperatures drop near freezing for many in Mississippi and Alabama. Those a little further south towards the coast or out west in Louisiana will probably see a few degrees above that, but somewhere in the 30s is expected. Winds will be generally calm, and skies will be clear, so radiational cooling will make it certainly chilly!
Tomorrow’s Forecast: Friday, January 16
Tomorrow will start off sunny and bright, with no rain and little cloud cover. It will be a chilly morning, with widespread frost expected on surfaces, so be cautious for the morning commute. We’ll warm up quite nicely throughout the day to a high in the low-to-mid 60s to near 70 towards Louisiana. Clouds will start to increase during the afternoon and early evening as a cold front begins to push through. There will be a few scattered showers by evening and into the overnight hours, but it should largely be out of here by Saturday morning.
Weekend Outlook
Looking ahead to the weekend, that cold front will shift our wind direction to the north, bringing cooler temperatures to the northern part of MS/AL/LA and just slightly below average temperatures to the southern half. Generally, highs will be in the mid-50s, and we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds. We will stay mostly dry, but a few showers are possible Saturday night.
For Sunday, we’re well below average, only reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s as a high. This is largely due to the troughing pattern pushing down into our region once again, bringing cold northerly air. We are expecting dry conditions, with any leftover precipitation out to our east.
Now, I do want to mention that it is possible to see a few flurries on Sunday morning, but take that with a grain of salt. It’s looking like there won’t be enough moisture throughout the atmosphere or enough upward forcing to produce accumulating snow for us, but a few flurries are not completely out of the question!
Extended Local Outlook
Looking ahead into next week, you can see that we will remain influenced by large-scale troughing for most of the week, with temperatures below average in the 50s. Then, by next weekend, the signal is looking like a return of ridging, briefly, which would bring our temperatures above average. Given that most of the teleconnections we look at are in the negative phase and are expected to remain negative through January, I would expect more troughiness than ridginess (if those are real words), so a better chance of below-normal temperatures than above-normal for the rest of the month and the start of February.
