Sometimes no news is the best news. This is often the case during hurricane season.
There are no systems in the Atlantic basin that require attention. This is great news given that we are now in August.
Parts of the Pacific have been getting pounded by repeated storms including hurricane Genevieve which recently reached category five strength. Thankfully, that storm has weakened significantly and remained over ocean.
Back in our neck of the woods, the waters are warming.
They aren’t “hot” but they are definitely warm enough to support a tropical cyclone.
An unseasonably deep trough is traversing the eastern seaboard as we speak. This will keep too much shear in place for any cyclones to form. The upper air pattern afterwards is more uncertain but it appears that ridging will dominate and therefore suppress any convection before it can organize.
The latest run of the ECMWF ensembles do not show any hint of activity in the Gulf. This is not uncommon during a strong El Nino like we are in now. Remember though, we still have over a month until the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season and it probably won’t be this quiet for the entire season.
Overall, a very dead pattern for us giving y’all some time to relax.
