Another cold front Thursday, Then next week looks interesting: Southern MS/AL/LA Weather Forecast – 11/16/21

Oh boy. So! Anyone heard in good jokes lately? I’ve got one: The overnight GFS computer weather model.

Not a great joke without the picture. So:

Bogus weather data from the GFS computer weather model

I promise – I absolutely promise – you will see/hear about this during the next 24 hours from rogue facebook pages. They’ll post about southern snow on Thanksgiving and blizzard conditions, and super cold.

And I get it, for weather enthusiasts it is fun to see this kind of thing.

But it isn’t a likely scenario. Possible? Sure. But not likely. By any means. Other things in the “possible category include:
– Me getting a date with Anna Kendrick
– A giant meteor landing in the path of a formed tornado
– Mississippi not being humid in August

These things could happen. But the likelihood is very low. Some lower than others. I think snow on Black Friday is probably right behind “me getting a date with Anna Kendrick” and ahead of “giant meteor.”

As many of you are accustomed to hearing me say, “I’m going to take a conservative approach” to my forecast. So, in this case, I’m going to take a conservative approach. And that includes lookin at ensemble guidance, which, for the same time period shows temperatures a bit closer to “average”

GEFS computer weather ensemble model showing temperatures for Black Friday // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
GEFS computer weather ensemble model showing precip for Black Friday – but no snow // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

So we will see how things shake out. But don’t get your hopes us (or your anxiety up, either) about the chance for wintry precipitation around Thanksgiving. For the moment that is still a very unlikely scenario.



Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.

Tonight
Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.

Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.

Thursday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 70s.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the lower 40s.

Friday
Sunny, cooler. Highs in the lower 60s.

Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.

Saturday
Sunny. Highs around 70.

Saturday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 50.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s.

Monday
Mostly cloudy with a 20-percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s.





Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.