The Setup
Once again, the central U.S is getting pounded with wet weather and severe thunderstorms tomorrow. There’s a pretty significant tornado risk for northern Missouri, western Illinois, and southeastern Iowa. Thanks to the high pressure that’s been stationed over the southeast, these storms and the overall storm track have remained to our north and have not brought any severe threats to us recently.
As we’ve been mentioning for the past few days, this high-pressure system will shift east, removing the “bubble shield” that has been over us and allowing more storms to pass through. By Saturday night, a cold front will move through from the central U.S., bringing a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms. There isn’t any severe risk outlined yet, but it is possible that we get a low-level severe risk with this one.
Tonight’s Forecast
Tonight, we’re just a few degrees above average, sitting in the lower 60s with mostly clear skies. You should see some patchy fog from 5-9 AM tomorrow morning as our relative humidity rises to 100% at the surface and our winds calm down.
Tomorrow’s Forecast: Friday, April 17th
For Friday, we’ll see that fog burn off by 9 AM, with mostly sunny skies for the rest of the day. High temperatures are well above average, by about 10 degrees or so, sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s. We’re close to record-breaking heat, but we probably won’t break the record in Hattiesburg, where the previous hottest high for April 17th was 91 degrees set back in 1925! It will sure feel like it with the sticky humidity, though!
Weekend Forecast
For Saturday, it’ll be another day of heat and humidity with highs in the mid-80s. It will likely feel even more humid than Friday, because we’ll have a moist southerly flow pushing in from the Gulf, feeding into the incoming cold front later at night on Saturday. As you can see from the Euro model above, we’ll see the threat of rain come through sometime after sundown on Saturday and into the overnight into Sunday. Check back on Noah’s forecast tomorrow to see if the SPC issues any sort of severe outlook for this line of storms for our area.
Once we get behind the cold front, it will feel absolutely amazing! Sunday will have a high in the low 70s, with very low humidity! If you are planning a BBQ this weekend, I would recommend having it on Sunday. The northerly winds could wind up being a little gusty, so ensure the patio table umbrella is secured!
Extended Local Outlook
While the 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows above normal rainfall for next Tuesday to next Saturday, that doesn’t mean that there will be a bunch of rain every day next week, but it is likely highlighting the chance for another storm system coming through NEXT weekend, which could be more of a washout, which could dump a bunch of rain and bring us technically “above normal” for our precipitation during that time period. Overall, it does look pretty dry for the week days next week.
As for our temperature outlook, expect more of the same in terms of the above-normal temperatures and muggy humidity, aside from this Sunday, which, as I mentioned, will feel great!
