I took a few minutes and put this detailed forecast together Friday night before I went home for the weekend. I went through some of this stuff during the 10p news, but not all of it. And not in as great of detail.
As we head through the weekend, this forecast will likely be massaged a bit, but it looks like in general, points tot he north will have a better chance to see wintry weather and folks tot he south will have a lower threat for frozen precipitation.
I will continue to update things through the weekend here ont eh blog as forecast data continues to trickle in.
Things that can change
Just a quick note, because I didn’t get a chance to break this down in the video, but I wanted to point to a few things that may change in the coming days….
- The timeline for precipitation – I tend to think, if anything, this system will continue to speed up and precipitation may begin as early as Monday morning.
- The timeline for the cold air – There is a chance the cold air holds off a bit longer before oozing into the area, if so, it would mean more liquid precipitation and less wintry mix. It would also give the liquid precipitation more time to evaporate before the cold air settled across the area, saving us from dealing with more Black Ice.
- How cold it will be Tuesday morning – I’ve been very, very conservative with my forecast for the cold air. Currently the forecast low for Tuesday for our area is around 23 degrees. But there is a chance that we are a bit cooler. I doubt, at this point, that we will be much warmer than that on Tuesday morning. And sub-24-degree temperatures are pipe-bursting temperatures. So take some time this weekend to make sure pipes are insulated and protected.
Things that won’t change
The chance for snow.
There is basically zero chance for snowfall. You may – if you’re lucky – see a few ice crystals floating around come Tuesday morning between 1am and 4am, but that would be as close as you would get.
The temperature between the Dendritic Growth Zone and the ground is going to be too warm for real snowflakes to fall.
That was exactly what you said six years ago when you came to Mississippi when we had our big snow. You said we would have a few flakes here and there we had 6 inches. You do not have a clue what you’re talking about and you can tail while you’re on the way or you’re stumbling your words.
To Tom,
Apparently, you have never listened to this man during bad weather (tornadoes) when he tells you almost EXACTLY where the funnel is and where it’s going. I have, several times. He was spot on!! Maybe YOU should take a shot at the job.