Down and Dirty details: Quick update on Invest91L development, possible threat to Gulf coast

Author: || Published: 10/6/2018 at 11:51am

*** 400PM UPDATE FROM NHC***

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

…DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…
…WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA..

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI…470 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the north is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

***ORIGINAL POST***

Invest 91L / Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 isn’t the sexiest looking tropical Invest you’ve ever seen.

Invest 91L / Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 seen here on GOES-16 Infrared Imagery // Courtesy: College of DuPage Meteorology

It looks a lot like a young Subtropical Storm Alberto earlier this year. Or even the beginnings of Hurricane Nate last year (at about this time, too). It is lopsided, disorganized, lacking a lot of the characteristics you’d expect of an Invest that is forecast to develop soon.

But don’t let that fool you.

It should develop in the coming 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center has given the area an 80 percent chance of developing during the next 48 hours.

Why does it look so weird?

Invest 91L / Potential Tropical Cyclone 14, a lot like Alberto and Nate, is developing from the Central American Gyre. Because of that, it will likely be a bit messier than the typical tropical waves we watch move across the Atlantic. It also means that the eventual Tropical Storm or Hurricane may also be a bit more disorganized and one-sided. A lot like Alberto and Nate, also.

Whats the latest?

Courtesy: National Hurricane Center

And once it does begin to organize and develop, the computer model data suggests it should strengthen into a Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane. If so, it would be named Michael.

Courtesy: Tropical Tidbits

The model guidance for track shows it moving north into the Gulf and toward the Gulf Coast – somewhere between Biloxi, Mississippi and Panama City, Florida.

Courtesy?: Tropical Tidbits

Do I need to worry?

Depends on your location. If you live within 100 miles of the Gulf Coast between Morgan City, Louisiana and Port St. Joe, Florida you should probably double check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit and supplies. There is still a lot we don’t know yet, but it is always best to be prepared.


Author of the article:


Nick Lilja

Nick is former television meteorologist with stints in Amarillo and Hattiesburg. During his time in Hattiesburg, he was also an adjunct professor at the University of Southern Mississippi. He is a graduate of both Oregon State and Syracuse University that now calls Houston home. Now that he is retired from TV, he maintains this blog in his spare time.