Hello all and happy Sunday! For the next 3-days across the southeast, expect certain locations, especially across Arkansas and Tennessee, to be at risk for more flooding rainfall over the next couple of days.
With a ridge dominating the eastern portions of the southwest as well as portions of Texas, we can expect higher temperatures in those locations, as well as mainly dry weather. Where we have a bit of a trough set up in the circled area, that’s where we can expect better chances for precipitation and potential flooding to occur, given the better support for more organized precipitation chances. The WPC has this exact area also marked under a slight risk in their excessive rainfall forecast.
Monday
For Monday, the upper-air pattern remains mostly unchanged, with the flow to the north of the southeast becoming more zonal. Otherwise the ridge to our east looks to continue to extend to eastern portions of the southeast.
Overall, this leads to a lowered chance of the flooding potential across Arkansas and Tennessee then we saw on Sunday. However, there will see be a chance to see severe weather with potential for flooding as outlined by the WPC. Once again, temperatures will be highest under the influences of the ridge axis (in blue). This includes the eastern portions of the southeast and across Texas.
With the ridge expected to keep the severe weather mostly to the north and far west, the greater chances for more heavier precipitation is to the northern portions of the southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Otherwise, the usual thunderstorm chances of are across much of the southeast, with coastal areas more susceptible thanks to the sea-breeze boundary from the Gulf.
Tuesday / Overall Pattern
For Tuesday, we can expect a a bit of a pattern change, with a trough likely to dip down into portions of the southeast.
Looking at the 500MB heights and winds for Tuesday, the circled portion on the map indicated the trough dipping down into Mississippi and Louisiana. This is likely to enhance rainfall in these areas, where we see greater forcing or lift to lead to formation of clouds and thunderstorms. The WPC also has this highlighted in their outlook for Tuesday, where the greatest chances for rainfall are in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
The overall pattern for the next couple of days is a mix, with areas to the east further influenced by the upper-level ridge expected to see higher than average temperatures. This also includes portions of Texas influenced by the ridge out to the west. Other areas are expected to remain right around average for this time of year.
Most of the precipitation is expected to fall towards the northern regions of the southeast as we saw prior, with amounts greater than 2″ not out of the question.
3-Day Southeast City Forecast
| Dallas, TX | ||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
| High: 100 | High: 101 | High: 102 |
| Low: 81 | Low: 81 | Low: 81 |
| Precip: None | Precip: None | Precip: None |
| Houston, TX | ||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
| High: 95 | High: 96 | High: 95 |
| Low: 79 | Low: 78 | Low: 79 |
| Precip: 20% | Precip: 40% | Precip: 30% |
| New Orleans, LA | ||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
| High: 91 | High: 90 | High: 90 |
| Low: 79 | Low: 79 | Low: 77 |
| Precip: 40% | Precip: 80% | Precip: 70% |
| Little Rock, AR | ||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
| High: 86 | High: 91 | High: 94 |
| Low: 75 | Low: 75 | Low: 74 |
| Precip: 70% | Precip: 20% | Precip: 20% |
| Memphis, TN | ||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
| High: 85 | High: 89 | High: 93 |
| Low: 75 | Low: 76 | Low: 75 |
| Precip: 80% | Precip: 40% | Precip: 20% |
| Birmingham, AL | ||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
| High: 92 | High: 91 | High: 91 |
| Low: 73 | Low: 73 | Low: 72 |
| Precip: 40% | Precip: 30% | Precip: 50% |
| Atlanta, GA | ||
| Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
| High: 90 | High: 90 | High: 90 |
| Low: 73 | Low: 72 | Low: 71 |
| Precip: 50% | Precip: 40% | Precip: 50% |
