Flooding continues as transcontinental front stays stalled, Texas continues to dry up as its neighbors see most of the rain, and heatwave expected for Midwest next week: CONUS Forecast – 7/30/22

Author: || Published: 7/30/2022 at 8:02am

I would like to start off this post by saying my heart goes out to my home state of Kentucky where its eastern residents have been impacted by a major flooding event which has claimed over 20 lives. Water is deadly, especially in a mountainous region that can flood quickly, so with forecasts suggesting that more rain is on the way tomorrow, residents of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia should know to prepare today.

Today’s national forecast chart shows rain and flooding across the central and eastern US // Courtesy: Weather Prediction Center
Tomorrow’s national forecast chart shows rain and flooding across the central and eastern US // Courtesy: Weather Prediction Center

The flooding across our country can be explained by this stationary front that currently sits over the southern Great Plains and stretches to the Carolinas. Additionally, flooding in the Southwest is linked to their seasonal monsoon which will take over the region for the next month. To the north, a runway has opened up for a high pressure system to slide over to the Midwest and bring with it a mighty heatwave. Between the heat and floods stay weather aware this weekend and week because most of the country is seeing some sort of extreme weather.

Stationary front continues to bring rain across the Mid-South, worsening flooding in many already impacted communities

It has been harped on all week, but it needs to be said again. More flooding can be expected across already rain-soaked regions. Thanks to a stalled out front that won’t commit to leaving the area, there is concern for additional flooding in the Mid-South and Appalachian mountains. These areas of concern include communities like Hazard, KY which have already been severely impacted by flooding.

Slight risk (2-out-of-4) of excessive rainfall in Southwest and central Great Plains // Courtesy: Weather Prediction Center
Slight risk (2-out-of-4) of excessive rainfall in Southwest, Mid-South, and Appalachian mountains // Courtesy: Weather Prediction Center

There are slight risks (2-out-of-4) for excessive rainfall both today and tomorrow. Today’s risk mostly focuses on Oklahoma and the Southwest which have seen constant rounds of rain over the course of the week. Tomorrow’s risk includes Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee which have not even had time to recover from the flooding that is still destroying communities.

Total rainfall accumulation through next Saturday morning ranges from 1″-to-3″ in most regions along the stalled front // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The Mid-South region could see another 2″-to-3″ of rain over the next 7 days and consider the amount of rain they have already received, those communities should prepare for additional flooding, especially tomorrow. Another phenomenon to note is that the Southwest Monsoon is bringing widespread 1″-to-1.5″ of rain to drought stricken states like Nevada and Arizona. If the monsoon can continue to deliver more rain in this pattern, the dry region could make another stride towards a less severe drought.

Texas drought will likely worsen as the state’s neighbors see front and monsoonal-related rains

Texas has been in a drought for the last several months, and with the summer being the state’s dry season, they cannot count on summer storms to shrink the rainfall deficit. This week’s pattern is hardly an exception to that rule with most of the state forecasted to not see any significant rainfall over the next few days. Unfortunately, this pattern will likely worsen conditions for one of the most drought-stricken states in US.

Lack of rain in a majority of Texas with the exceptional being the northern Panhandle and the eastern border // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather
Most of Texas is covered in red and dark red splotches that indicate extreme to exceptional drought conditions // Courtesy: US Drought Monitor

Estimated rainfall through Tuesday shows that the desert Southwest will benefit from monsoonal rains while Oklahoma and Arkansas will benefit from the stationary front currently over the region. The Texas panhandle could also see some drought relief due to this front. Additionally, east Texas will benefit from summer storms that are fueled by warm and moist winds originating from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the heart of Texas will continue to dry out as they are projected to not see any rain over the course of the next week.

Mighty Midwestern heatwave is expected next week as heat indices approach +110F

This week’s heatwave that impacted the Northwest is migrating eastward over the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure develops over the middle of the US. This shift could lead to a staggering heatwave in the Midwest by the middle of next week as heat indices soar into the 100s with communities from Nebraska to the Mississippi River likely seeing +110F.

Multiple areas in Central and Eastern US expecting excessive heat over the next week // Courtesy: Weather Prediction Center
Central and eastern US likely will see above average temperatures through next weekend // Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

The Weather Prediction Center expects the heatwave to impact a large majority of the Central and Eastern US next week. The worst impacts are expected to be felt in the Midwest which will see temperatures +20F above normal by Wednesday. Because the high pressure system is forecasted to restrengthen as it migrates eastward, there will be broad impacts to multiple regions. Over the course of the next week and a half, there is a 80-to-90-percent chance of above average temperatures stretching from Nebraska to New York.

Heat indices near 110F across the Upper Great Plains and Midwest on August 3rd // Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

The worst of the forecasted heatwave will likely happen on Wednesday and Thursday of next week, where indices should peak just above 110F in several locations across the upper Mississippi River Valley and the upper Great Plains. Locations in the Ohio River Valley will likely see heat indices ranging from 100F-to-110F. Because model guidance has persistently hinted at this heatwave, Midwestern residents should take the proper precautions to prepare for excessive heat. Follow the material provided on Ready.gov when preparing for extreme heat.


Author of the article:


Chandler Pruett

Chandler Pruett is a meteorology and statistics duel degree student at FSU. He has experience as a hurricane analyst and student broadcast meteorologist. He is a dedicated forecaster ready to serve you with accurate weather information!