Good afternoon! As I’m writing this at 1:00p CDT, heat indices are in the upper 90s for much of our region, and they’re only going to rise for the next couple of hours. Combined with the wicked humidity, there will be plenty of energy for storms later today.
Some scattered storms have already fired up in our region, particularly in the Florida panhandle. These storms will continue to develop as the day goes on, and by around 4 or 5 tonight, the storms will likely be widespread. Some hotspots for storms include western Louisiana, the Mississippi coast, and the area from Meridian to Montgomery.
Rainfall totals will generally range from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch for most places, but some areas hit directly by a storm will see totals much higher than that. The HRRR model shows some localized areas receiving up to 4″ of rain. The area with the highest probability of seeing significant totals is western Louisiana, the area north of Covington, LA, as well as up near central Mississippi, near Meridian.
Moving into tomorrow, we’re in for a cooler than average day, with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the very low 90s. This can be attributed to an unusual summertime low pressure center over Tennessee that will usher in a cold front from the northeast tonight.
This low pressure center (see that counterclockwise flow near the MS/AL/TN intersection?) will bring with it some showers and storms for our region tomorrow. These showers and storms will develop around lunchtime tomorrow, and will likely last well into the night, particularly in Georgia.
Airport Forecast
KHOU/KIAH (Houston) – Current: temperature is 79ºF, dew point is 75ºF, sky conditions are thunderstorm heavy rain fog/mist, winds are coming out of the southeast at 12 mph, and visibility is 1 mile. The chance of storms will persist for the rest of this afternoon going into the night until after midnight. Some delays are expected.
KATL (Atlanta) – Current: temperature is 92ºF, dew point is 72ºF, sky conditions are mostly cloudy, winds are coming out of the west at 10 mph, and visibility is 10 miles. Storms and showers are likely this afternoon going into the evening until around 8, then more showers are likely after that, lasting until the morning. Some delays are expected.
KMSY (New Orleans) – Current: temperature is 90ºF, dew point is 76ºF, sky conditions are mostly cloudy, winds are coming out of the south at 13 mph, and visibility is 10 miles. Showers are storms are likely for the rest of this afternoon, lasting until the night. Some delays are expected.
KBTR (Baton Rouge) Current: temperature is 88ºF, dew point is 75ºF, sky conditions are overcast, winds are coming out of the northwest at 5 mph, and visibility is 10 miles. Showers and storms are expected this afternoon lasting until well after midnight tonight. Some delays are expected.
KSHV (Shreveport) – Current: temperature is 79ºF, dew point is 75ºF, sky conditions are thunderstorms, winds are coming out of the northwest at 5 mph, and visibility is 10 miles. Showers and storms are likely this afternoon lasting until after midnight tonight. Some delays are expected.
KJAN (Jackson) – Current: temperature is 90ºF, dew point is 78ºF, sky conditions are mostly cloudy, winds are coming out of the southwest at 9 mph, and visibility is 10 miles. There is a moderate chance of showers and storms beginning this afternoon and lasting until past midnight. Some minor delays are possible.
KBHM (Birmingham) – Current: temperature is 88ºF, dew point is 72ºF, sky conditions are mostly cloudy, winds are coming out of the northwest at 8 mph, and visibility is 10 miles. Showers and storms are likely beginning this evening around 5 pm. These will last until past midnight, so some delays are expected.
KMOB (Mobile) – Current: temperature is 77ºF, dew point is 74ºF, sky conditions are thunderstorms with light rain, winds are coming out of the south at 5 mph, and visibility is 7 miles. Most storms will continue this afternoon until the early evening, after that the chance of storms is still there but not as pronounced. Most storms should be done by 10 tonight. Some delays are expected.
KTLH (Tallahassee) – Current: temperature is 73ºF, dew point is 71ºF, sky conditions are thunderstorms with light rain, winds are coming out of the north at 3 mph, and visibility is 10 miles. Storms and showers are likely to continue this afternoon lasting until around 8 tonight. Some delays are expected.
Highway Forecast
I-10: Potentially strong thunderstorms are expected to develop along the entire section of this highway this afternoon and evening, particularly in western Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. Be aware of heavy rains, lightning, and gusty winds. If you see water on the road, turn around and don’t drown! Driving conditions will be poor until around 10 tonight.
I-20: Potentially strong storms will develop around 5 tonight between Shreveport and Jackson. These storms will last until around 11 tonight. Around 9-10, another round of storms will develop in the Birmingham area which will last until after midnight. Driving conditions will be poor tonight.
I-49: Strong storms will develop further this afternoon between Alexandria and Lafayette which will last until around 10 tonight. Later this evening, around 5-6 pm, more storms will develop further north near Shreveport, which will last until around 11. Driving conditions will be very poor along this highway tonight.
I-55: Potentially strong storms will develop around 4 this afternoon south of Jackson until the end of the highway which will last until around midnight tonight. The storms closer to Jackson will also develop around that time but will linger until after midnight. Driving conditions will be poor.
I-59: Strong storms along the entirety of this highway will develop this evening around 5, lasting until around midnight. The area of strong storms from Meridian to slightly south of Birmingham will linger for longer, well after midnight. Driving conditions will be poor.
I-65: Potentially strong storms along the entire highway will form tonight, particularly between Birmingham and Montgomery. The storms near Mobile and closer to the FL border will last until around 10-11 tonight, while the storms further north will last until well past midnight. Driving conditions will be poor.
I-75: Potentially strong storms will develop around 4-5 tonight in central Georgia, near Macon and will last until around midnight. More strong storms will develop in north central Florida this afternoon that should be gone by the evening. Driving conditions will be relatively poor tonight.
3 Day City Forecast
Tallahassee, FL
Tomorrow: Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day with a high of 88ºF. Thunderstorms will start around noon and last until midnight. Some flooding is possible. Winds will be gusty throughout the day, gusting up to 20 mph. By night, cloud cover will remain cloudy, and temperatures should fall into the low 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day on Tuesday with a high of 90ºF. Showers and storms are likely beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until the late evening and beginning of the night. Temperatures should drop into the low-mid 70s by Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day with a high of 93ºF. There is a chance of storms and showers in the morning as well as throughout the afternoon and evening. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on as skies will be mostly cloudy by the night, when temperatures should drop into the mid 70s.
Birmingham, AL
Tomorrow: Skies will be cloudy throughout the day tomorrow with a high of 85ºF. Showers and storms will persist for most of the day tomorrow, beginning in the morning (leftovers from the day before) and lasting until after midnight. Skies will remain cloudy into the night, when temperatures should drop into the low 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Tuesday with a high of 88ºF. The chance of storms begins in the early afternoon and lasts until the night. Cloud cover will increase as the day, and by night skies will be mostly cloudy, and temperatures will drop into the low 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 90ºF. There is a chance of storms and showers beginning in the early afternoon until the late evening. By night, skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures should drop into the low 70s.
Mobile, AL
Tomorrow: Skies will be cloudy throughout the day tomorrow with a high of 86ºF. Storms will begin around noon and will last until around 10-11 pm. Storms will likely be fairly constant throughout the afternoon and evening, so watch out for potential flash flooding. Skies will remain cloudy going into the night, when temperature should fall into the low 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Tuesday with a high of 88ºF. Showers and thunderstorms will begin in the early afternoon and will last into the night. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, and by night skies will be mostly cloudy, and temperatures will fall into the mid 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 92ºF. There is a slight chance of showers and storms beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until around midnight. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, and by night skies will be partly cloudy, when temperatures should fall into the mid-upper 70s.
Atlanta, GA
Tomorrow: Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day tomorrow with a high of 84ºF. The chance of scattered storms begins around noon and will last until around midnight. Flash flooding is possible tomorrow. By night, skies will remain cloudy and temperatures will fall into the low 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be cloudy on Tuesday with a high of 82ºF. The chance of showers and storms will linger pretty much all day on Tuesday. By night, skies will still be cloudy and temperatures will drop into the low 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 86ºF. Storms and showers are possible beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until around 8 pm. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, and by night, skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures should fall into the low 70s.
Jackson, MS
Tomorrow: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day with a high of 87ºF. Showers and storms will develop beginning in the early evening and will last until a bit after midnight. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, and by night skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will drop into the low 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day with a high of 87ºF. Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning in the early evening and lasting until a bit past midnight. By night, skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will drop into the low 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 89ºF. There will be a slight chance of storms and showers throughout the day beginning in the late morning and lasting until the late night hours. By night, skies will be partly cloudy, and temperatures will fall into the low 70s.
New Orleans, LA
Tomorrow: Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day tomorrow with a high of 84ºF. Showers and storms are likely in the morning, as well as in the afternoon and evening, and will be mostly wrapped up by midnight. Cloud cover will persist into the night, when temperatures will fall into the mid 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Tuesday with a high of 87ºF. Showers and storms are likely beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until the evening. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, and by night, skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will drop into the mid 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 91ºF. There is a slight chance of showers and storms beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until the night. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, and by night skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures should drop into the mid-upper 70s.
Baton Rouge, LA
Tomorrow: Skies will be cloudy throughout the day tomorrow with a high of 85ºF. Showers and possible in the morning, but more potent storms will develop around lunchtime and should be mostly wrapped up by 10-11 pm. Cloud cover will persist into the night, when temperatures should drop into the low 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Tuesday with a high of 88ºF. Storms and showers are likely beginning in the early afternoon and lasting into the night. Skies will be mostly cloudy by Tuesday night, when temperatures should drop into the low-mid 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be partly sunny throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 90ºF. Storms and showers are possible beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until the late evening. Cloud cover will increase as the day goes on, and by night skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will drop into the low 70s.
Shreveport, LA
Tomorrow: Skies will be partly cloudy throughout the day on Monday with a high of 87ºF. Some showers are possible in the early morning, then more showers and storms are possible in the afternoon and evening and lasting until the night. By night, skies will remain partly cloudy and temperatures will drop into the low 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day on Tuesday with a high of 88ºF. Some showers and storms are possible beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until the late evening. By night, skies will become partly cloudy and temperatures should fall into the low 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 88ºF. There is a slight chance of storms beginning in the early afternoon and lasting until the evening. Skies will be partly cloudy by Wednesday night and temperatures should drop into the low-mid 70s.
Houston, TX
Tomorrow: Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day tomorrow with a high of 91ºF. Potentially strong storms are possible in the early morning hours, then more storms are possible beginning in the evening and lasting until around midnight. Flash flooding is possible. Skies will remain mostly cloudy by night, when temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 70s.
Tuesday: Skies will be mostly cloudy on Tuesday with a high of 87ºF. Showers and storms are possible in the morning, then are likely in the afternoon and evening. By night, skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will drop into the mid 70s.
Wednesday: Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the day on Wednesday with a high of 90ºF. Showers and storms are possible in the afternoon and evening. By night, skies will remain mostly cloudy and temperatures should drop into the mid-upper 70s.
