Invest 96L continues to hold on to dear life. A lot like the guy who didn’t want to “go on the cart” in Monty Python, this thing is not quite dead yet.
In fact, the National Hurricane Center is still highlighting what is left of Invest 95L, too. So, I suppose, there are two areas of “not-quite-dead-yet’d’ness” out there.
You’ll be stone dead in a moment
Invest 95L is basically a dead duck. The NHC says a “near zero” chance of development, but that is more of a “just in case” as Invest 95L is basically dun’fer. That leaves us to focus our attention on Invest 96L. That is the next wave that is out a little farther in the Atlantic. The NHC gives Invest 96L a 20-percent chance fo development during the next 48 hours. And a 70-percent chance of development during the next five days.
The next wave behind that doesn’t have a designation, yet. But if it can survive the next 24 hours, it may be given an Invest tag. If so, it would be Invest 97L.
I can’t take him like that, its against regulation
Official word from the National Hurricane Center on the two Invests:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of disturbed weather spreading across south Florida and the Bahamas is expected to move northward, producing additional locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next day or two. Significant development of this system is not expected before it merges with a front and accelerates northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.2. An elongated low pressure system located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now forecast to become less favorable for additional development by early next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
When’s your next run?
Model guidance comes out about every six hours for the Invests. That means a new batch of spaghetti models is out four times per day. That is a lot. So if/when you’re searching for the latest information on the systems in the Atlantic, make sure you’re looking at the latest data.
This current run of data, the overnight stuff, shows some decent consistency on track – and that is surprising, given there is no real defined center of circulation.
Notice that most model guidance now takes Invest 96L further south than the guidance was showing 24 hours ago. Last night’s write-up pointed out that a more southerly track was more likely given the ‘anomalous ridging’ occurring. It is nice to see other model data on track reflecting what the GFS computer weather model was showing last night.
The other nice thing is that the models have come back down to earth on the intensity guidance.
Last night, model guidance was showing a potential Category 2 Hurricane within 72 to 120 hours. That seemed a little aggressive. And unlikely. So it is nice to see the models are a little more realistic tonight.
I think I’ll go for a walk
So what happens five days from now, you ask? Great question! While we don’t know for certain, we can look at the model data and get an idea about the possibilities.
At five days out, the GFS thinks that the weather map will look like the map above. Invest 96L is tough to pick out, for sure. There is no defined center yet, no well-defined wind field, nothing indicative of a well-organized system.
The above map identifies some of the moving pieces that will go into figuring out what and where Invest 96L will be. The ridge to the north, in the latest data available as of this writing, isn’t as elongated as it was shown 24 hours ago.
Without hte blob sagging south, that means that while Invest 96L will stay further south through the first five days than shown last night… it may have an easier time turning north after the fifth day. That may help keep it out to sea and away from land.
The green dashes show the potential track of Invest 96L after Day Five. Notice that the possibilities are pretty wide. Anywhere from out to sea to toward the Gulf. But that is Tropical Forecasting in a nutshell. Beyond Day Five, it gets really tough. Double tough when a system (like this) hasn’t even formed yet.
Isn’t there anything you can do?
Check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit. That’s about it. Make sure you have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water.
Not because this system is anticipated to wipe out power and water to an area, but rather, you should always have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water during Hurricane season.
