New ‘area of interest’ enters Gulf of Mexico

On the Eve of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on a new cluster of storms near the Yucatan associated with the Central American Gyre.

Currently, the atmosphere is set up to be favorable for development in that area. It is far enough away from the big ridge of high pressure near us, but barely out over water. Depending on how the ridge sets up in the coming days, this area of interest will need to be monitored. The good news for the Gulf Coast is that even if something does develop, given the general placement of the ridge, this area of interest would be unlikely to bother the region.

However, if the ridge placement or strength changes during the next 48 horus, that may change things slightly.

From the NHC:

1. A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers centered over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to move westward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week as long as it remains over water. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. Regular issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will begin at 2 AM EDT tonight with the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Here is a satellite loop from Friday, May 31st at 2pm:

via GIPHY