7/8/19 2AM UPDATE:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
Original Post on Saturday night:
The National Hurricane Center continues to increase the risk for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico later this week to 60-percent. And model guidance continues to come into agreement that some sort of development is possible, too.
Now is the time to double-check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit.
Latest from the NHC
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for development and issued a new update Sunday evening.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
Timeline
The area of low pressure associated with the eventual development is sagging south over parts of the southeast tomorrow and through Wednesday morning. Based on the latest model data, by Wednesday, it will finally get out over the Gulf and start to try to organize.
From there, it will float around int eh Gulf on Thursday and Friday before moving back ashore sometime on Friday or Saturday – depending on location.
Impacts
Ranked from highest to lowest risk…
Rain. Flooding. Isolated tornadoes. Straight-line wind. Storm surge.
No matter where this thing goes, and if it develops or not, it will bring a lot of rain to the Gulf Coast where ever it goes.
Take a look at the image above from the good guys over at Pivotal Weather. This is the official precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Unlike when we show the computer weather model data with precipitation estimates, this map is the actual forecast put together by actual meteorologists with the WPC.
This map is likely going to change in the coming days, sure. But the one thing that sticks out to me is that the higher totals are around 4″ to 8″ of rain. And, currently, the highest totals are over the Gulf of Mexico.
Should this map change, keep an eye on those higher totals to see how they shift. I tend to think they will shift northwest in the coming days. That would put the heavier rainfall totals over land across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Is everything set in stone, Nick? Can we lock it in?
Absolutely not. This thing hasn’t even formed yet.In general the rule is, “until it forms, we don’t really know.”
And we don’t ‘really know’ anything. A lot of what we are forecasting on is model data only. There isn’t any satellite data to look at, radar trends to study, or Hurricane Hunter data to sift through.
It is like driving down the highway at 70mph at night. While we can make it from Point A to Point B just fine… we are, technically, driving blind. We are trusting the computers to get it right before we have any visual evidence of anything formed.
As a human meteorologist, I don’t like doing that. So this forecast is far from set in stone.
There is still a lot of differences between the models, too. The European model shows the potential system moving west toward Louisiana. The GFS shows the potential system moving ashore across parts of the Florida panhandle. The Canadian shows something similar to the GFS.
The Ensemble models do things that are in-between those three.
So, with all of that, it doesn’t give me high confidence in any specifics.
In fact, depending on how things shake out (especially with the placement of the two areas of high pressure that will be out there) the area of low pressure could strengthen to a Tropical Storm in as little as 48 hours.
Or it may never fully develop.
So again, specifics aren’t really possible at this point.
So what is set in stone?
Very little. I think it is safe to say there will be an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. I think it is a safe to say that somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa is going to get more than four inches of rain this week.
That is about it that is “locked in” at this point. And even that has some degree of unpredictability.
How to prepare now
Check your Hurricane Preparedness Kit. That’s about it. Make sure you have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water.
Not because this system is anticipated to wipe out power and water to an area, but rather, you should always have enough supplies to last a few days without power and water during Hurricane season.
