Good morning folks, I hope you’ve found ways to stay cool in this heat; my favorite ways are drinking ice-cold water and sitting in front of a fan! Today’s weather will feature highs around 95F and dew points near 75F (gross!), which will put heat indices around 107F, so please do your best to stay cool and hydrated.
As the sun further heats the surface temperature, vertical mixing of the air will start to lower the dew points in the afternoon/evening allowing for a stray shower/thunderstorm or two, but it will primarily be rain-free tomorrow.
Subtropical ridging continues to dominate the majority of the U.S., with the area of 500mb high pressure beginning to shift westward as storms continue to traverse around it. By late Sunday the ridge will become more diffuse and spread eastward over the region, shifting to the Western U.S. again by early Tuesday. Regardless of this variance in the ridge’s location, hot and humid weather with afternoon chances for thunderstorms will persist over the next 7 days.
Southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama will be on the edge of the heavy precipitation over the next several days. If you live in the region, you’ll have better chances at seeing rain closer to the coast and farther east thanks to the location of the high pressure. The majority of this rainfall will come from a weak front from a decaying storm system that will push through the region late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Most summertime thunderstorms pulse and peak in the afternoon/evening and fizzle out by night as the sun is no longer available to provide the storm energy; however, leftover energy from remnant storm systems can induce convective activity without help from the sun. This weekend will experience a hybrid of the two: remnant energy reinforced by daytime heating. The above image from the NAM 12km model indicates frontal energy which will induce thunderstorm development as it sweeps through the region.
A marginal risk has been issued for the entire region on Saturday, July 9, primarily for a damaging wind threat. Storm coverage won’t be widespread, but the best chance for storms will be in the northern part of our forecast region, as the front will have access to the strongest instability at that time. I recommend having a way to get warnings in case you’re in the path of one of the stronger storms.
Day to Day Forecast
Today
Mostly sunny with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 107F.
Tonight
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 70s.
Saturday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the mid 90s. Heat Index values around 106F.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, 40-percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s. Heat Index values around 104F.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, 20-percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.
Monday
Mostly sunny with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s.
Wednesday
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Highs in the lower 90s.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
