Some drought conditions improve while others worsen amidst the heat: Southeast Weather Forecast – 7/24/22

Overall a drier pattern is expected across the Southeast for the next three days with the exception of afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the thick of the heat. Sufficient surface moisture (dewpoints ranging from 70F-75F) and high precipitable water values (PWATs, 1.5″-2.0″) will allow for any storms that do develop to produce heavy rainfall, but these storms will pulse and be quick-hitters keeping overall rainfall amounts low.

500mb ridging continues to sit over the South/Southeast with an area of high pressure set over parts of AR, Western TN, and NW MS keeping the weather relatively dry and hot. An upper level low (ULL) is drifting south-southwestward across the Florida Peninsula and will bring some higher precipitation amounts across parts of SC, GA, and Northern FL today and will weaken as it heads into the Gulf.

By the middle of next week the ridge will weaken and re-develop over the Western U.S. and in the Western Atlantic opening the door for some wetter weather next weekend.

Because of the ridge placement, most of the Southeast will experience lower-than-average precipitation over the next three days with slightly higher totals along the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines from daily sea-breeze fronts. Besides that, precipitation will come from afternoon/evening thunderstorms with some slightly higher coverage from the extra lift created by the ULL discussed in the previous paragraph.

The moderate drought conditions in GA, SC, and NC have improved over the past few days thanks to the tropical moisture in place; however, the drought has worsened across parts of TX, OK, and AR as the subtropical ridge has been circulating over the South keeping rainfall suppressed and temperatures above average. It’s hard to say when the severe and extreme drought condtions will begin to improve in Western TX/OK/AR, but there is a chance for some substantial rainfall later next weekend.

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3-Day Southeast City Forecasts

Dallas, TX
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 101F	High: 103F	High: 103F
Low: 82F	Low: 81F	Low: 81F
Precip: None	Precip: None	Precip: None

Houston, TX
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 98F	High: 96F	High: 95F
Low: 79F	Low: 79F	Low: 78F
Precip: 20%	Precip: 20%	Precip: 30%

New Orleans, LA
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 91F	High: 90F	High: 91F
Low: 79F	Low: 79F	Low: 79F
Precip: 60%	Precip: 60%	Precip: 40%

Little Rock, AR
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 100F	High: 100F	High: 100F
Low: 79F	Low: 80F	Low: 80F
Precip: None	Precip: None	Precip: None

Memphis, TN
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 97F	High: 97F	High: 97F
Low: 78F	Low: 77F	Low: 77F
Precip: None	Precip: 30%	Precip: 30%

Birmingham, AL
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 93F	High: 92F	High: 91F
Low: 75F	Low: 74F	Low: 74F
Precip: 30%	Precip: 30%	Precip: 30%

Atlanta, GA
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday
High: 92F	High: 90F	High: 89F
Low: 73F	Low: 73F	Low: 74F
Precip: 40%	Precip: 40%	Precip: 60%