So, it looks like we’ve got a low pressure system over the Plains that will be moving towards us today and tonight. There may be some scattered showers or thunderstorms this evening, but it’s unlikely that we’ll see anything too severe. However, as the low pressure system moves eastward, it will bring a warm front with it, which could result in some isolated strong to severe storms in our area after midnight tonight. The primary hazards would be hail and damaging wind gusts, but there’s also a chance of a tornado forming in the vicinity of the warm front. The threat for severe weather will continue into Thursday.
Speaking of Thursday, a shortwave trough will be moving in from NE Texas, bringing with it widespread precipitation. There’s potential for isolated severe storms due to the steep lapse rates and decent MUCAPE values, with damaging winds and hail up to quarter size being the main threats. The SPC has placed most of our area under either a marginal risk or a slight risk. There might be some lingering moisture and instability after the initial system passes through, which could result in isolated storms forming during the evening hours.
Friday through next week looks to be mainly quiet, with a trough moving through the area on Sunday that could bring some rain. The best chances for rain will likely be in SE LA and the MS Gulf Coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s over the weekend, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
REGIONAL DAY TO DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the lower 50s.
Monday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Monday Night: Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
